Suduva Marijampole 0–1 Dainava: Result & Stats

Suduva Marijampole

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Dainava

A. Ode 44'

3/31/2024

A Lyga · Round 5Marijampolės futbolo arenos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Suduva Marijampole53%

×Draw26%

Dainava21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Suduva MarijampoleExpected goals in this matchDainava

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.81

Suduva Marijampole

1.48

Dainava

0.81

Suduva Marijampole creates 83% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 72 away

1.57

creates per match

0.79

0.83

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Suduva Marijampole

1.57

Dainava

0.79

allows per match

Suduva Marijampole

0.83

Dainava

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Suduva Marijampole+0.00on par

Dainava+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suduva Marijampole ↓

Dainava →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Suduva Marijampole or draw

79%

Suduva Marijampole or Dainava

74%

Draw or Dainava

47%

Winning margin

Suduva Marijampole wins by 2+

27%

Dainava wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Suduva Marijampole 1+ goals

77%

Suduva Marijampole 2+ goals

43%

Suduva Marijampole 3+ goals

19%

Dainava 1+ goals

56%

Dainava 2+ goals

19%

Dainava 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Suduva Marijampole (draw refunded)

72%

Dainava (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suduva Marijampole at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.83 · 128 matches

Dainava away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.40 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suduva Marijampole attack 1.57 + Dainava defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.48

Dainava attack 0.79 + Suduva Marijampole defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Suduva Marijampole scores more

53%

level

26%

Dainava scores more

21%

Suduva Marijampole at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Suduva Marijampole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

33'

37'

37'

44'

45+1'

I. Kruzikas

53'

D. Mandricenco

53'

D. Mandricenco

60'

R. Banevicius

62'

R. Rasimavičius← I. Kružikas

62'

P. Olugbogi← S. Sorokin

66'

A. Mickevicius

70'

D. Stankevičius← M. Pyrohov

70'

U. Oduenyi← M. Burba

82'

S. Lawson← T. Burdzilauskas

82'

L. Zingertas← R. Filipavičius

85'

C. Nwosu

85'

C. Nwosu← A. Baftalovskyi

86'

Z. Baltrunas

90+2'

A. Krivokapic

Suduva

Dainava

77

3

51

29

23

17

6

7

▼

Baftalovs

11

▼

Sorokin

5

⚽

Ode

14

▼

12

15

96

5

2

▼

Burdzilau

19

▼

Filipavič

13

▼

14

28

10

24

▼

Burba

Manager: D. Lastauskas

70'▲D. Stankevičius←▼M. Pyrohov

70'▲U. Oduenyi←▼M. Burba

82'▲S. Lawson←▼T. Burdzilauskas

82'▲L. Zingertas←▼R. Filipavičius

Suduva Marijampole substitutes

88Stankevičius94Oduenyi8Lawson21Zingertas66Pačėsa92Dubickas97Gumbelevičius99Stebrys23Stoianov7Česnavičius

Manager: S. Kuznetsov

62'▲R. Rasimavičius←▼I. Kružikas

62'▲P. Olugbogi←▼S. Sorokin

85'▲C. Nwosu←▼A. Baftalovskyi

Dainava substitutes

32Rasimavičius99Olugbogi10Nwosu1Krynskyi9Rakić19Stanulevičius21Misiūnas24Paliušis28Jawara30Lukošiūnas70Krasikov