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Suduva Marijampole vs Banga — A Lyga 2026

Suduva Marijampole
Suduva Marijampole
Preview
12:15
Banga
Banga
11/1/2026A LygaA Lyga · Round 35Marijampole Football Arena
Big match
51%
Suduva Marijampole
model favours
51%27%22%

Suduva Marijampole are unbeaten in 9 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
44%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Suduva Marijampole51%
×Draw27%
Banga22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Suduva Marijampole
1.45
Banga
0.85

Suduva Marijampole creates 71% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 110 away

creates per match

Suduva Marijampole
1.57
Banga
0.87

allows per match

Suduva Marijampole
0.83
Banga
1.32

finishing

Suduva Marijampole+0.00on par
Banga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 60Over: 4060%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 56Yes: 4456%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suduva Marijampole ↓

Banga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Suduva Marijampole or draw
78%
Suduva Marijampole or Banga
73%
Draw or Banga
49%

Winning margin

Suduva Marijampole wins by 2+
26%
Banga wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Suduva Marijampole 1+ goals
77%
Suduva Marijampole 2+ goals
42%
Suduva Marijampole 3+ goals
18%
Banga 1+ goals
57%
Banga 2+ goals
21%
Banga 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Suduva Marijampole (draw refunded)
70%
Banga (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suduva Marijampole at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.83 · 128 matches

Banga away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.32 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suduva Marijampole attack 1.57 + Banga defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.45

Banga attack 0.87 + Suduva Marijampole defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Suduva Marijampole scores more
51%
level
27%
Banga scores more
22%

Suduva Marijampole at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Suduva Marijampole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Suduva Marijampole score first in only 20% of matches
  • Banga score first in only 26% of matches
  • Both teams score in only 26% of Banga’s matches
  • 70% of Banga’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Top-of-the-table clash — Suduva Marijampole 3 vs Banga 2
  • Suduva Marijampole matches are rarely goalless — only 4% end 0-0

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Marijampole
WD
Banga
LWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suduva Marijampole vs Banga — Match Preview

Suduva Marijampole face Banga on November 1, 2026 in this A Lyga fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Suduva Marijampole host Banga at Marijampole Football Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.