Suduva Marijampole 1–0 Banga: Result & Stats

Suduva Marijampole

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Banga

O. Zbun 59'

8/11/2023

A Lyga · Round 26Hikvision Football Indoor Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Suduva Marijampole51%

×Draw27%

Banga22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Suduva MarijampoleExpected goals in this matchBanga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.85

Suduva Marijampole

1.45

Banga

0.85

Suduva Marijampole creates 71% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 110 away

1.57

creates per match

0.87

0.83

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Suduva Marijampole

1.57

Banga

0.87

allows per match

Suduva Marijampole

0.83

Banga

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Suduva Marijampole+0.00on par

Banga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suduva Marijampole ↓

Banga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Suduva Marijampole or draw

78%

Suduva Marijampole or Banga

73%

Draw or Banga

49%

Winning margin

Suduva Marijampole wins by 2+

26%

Banga wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Suduva Marijampole 1+ goals

77%

Suduva Marijampole 2+ goals

42%

Suduva Marijampole 3+ goals

18%

Banga 1+ goals

57%

Banga 2+ goals

21%

Banga 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Suduva Marijampole (draw refunded)

70%

Banga (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suduva Marijampole at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.83 · 128 matches

Banga away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.32 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suduva Marijampole attack 1.57 + Banga defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.45

Banga attack 0.87 + Suduva Marijampole defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Suduva Marijampole scores more

51%

level

27%

Banga scores more

22%

Suduva Marijampole at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Suduva Marijampole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

Zé Eduardo← Gonçalo Vieira

51'

D. Norvilas

55'

O. Kayode← A. Kovbasa

59'

O. Zbun

64'

K. Žebrauskas← V. Piliukaitis

64'

I. Venckus← Cesinha

73'

A. Fedorov

83'

A. Emsis← O. Zbun

83'

D. Stankevičius← E. Burdzilauskas

83'

P. Srebalius← Lara

84'

V. Antuzis

90+5'

Carlos Eduardo

90+2'

M. Miškinis← I. Olaosebikan

Suduva

Banga

55

Bertašius

2

Šveikausk

24

Shults

5

▼

Vieira

19

Antužis

4

▼

32

7

31

10

▼

Piliukait

49

▼

12

15

33

6

28

▼

Burdzilau

97

Gumbelevi

77

⚽

▼

Zbun

13

Pyrogov

14

Fedorov

19

▼

Olaosebik

17

▼

Kovbasa

Manager: D. Lastauskas

55'▲O. Kayode←▼A. Kovbasa

83'▲A. Emsis←▼O. Zbun

83'▲D. Stankevičius←▼E. Burdzilauskas

90+2'▲M. Miškinis←▼I. Olaosebikan

Suduva Marijampole substitutes

18Kayode10Emsis88Stankevičius21Miškinis11Mikulenas66Pačėsa99Stebrys92Dubickas2Burdzilauskas

Manager: David Afonso

36'▲Zé Eduardo←▼Gonçalo Vieira

64'▲K. Žebrauskas←▼V. Piliukaitis

64'▲I. Venckus←▼Cesinha

83'▲P. Srebalius←▼Lara

Banga substitutes

23Eduardo14Žebrauskas77Venckus18Srebalius1Smilingis8Andrejev20Toleikis88Smulkys

Match Recap: Suduva Marijampole vs Banga

Suduva Marijampole beat Banga 1-0 in A Lyga on August 11, 2023.

Goals: O. Zbun (59').

The match was played at Hikvision Football Indoor Arena in Marijampolė.

Suduva Marijampole vs Banga — A Lyga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Suduva Marijampole vs Banga