Suduva Marijampole 2–0 Banga: Result & Stats | Cup

Suduva Marijampole

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Banga

S. Hamulic 37'

Y. Protasov 23'

5/25/2022

Cup · Round of 16Hikvision arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Suduva Marijampole23%

×Draw26%

Banga51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Suduva MarijampoleExpected goals in this matchBanga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.92

1.51

Suduva Marijampole

0.92

Banga

1.51

Banga creates 64% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 11 away

0.75

creates per match

2.27

0.75

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Suduva Marijampole

0.75

Banga

2.27

allows per match

Suduva Marijampole

0.75

Banga

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Suduva Marijampole+0.00on par

Banga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suduva Marijampole ↓

Banga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–113%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Suduva Marijampole or draw

49%

Suduva Marijampole or Banga

74%

Draw or Banga

77%

Winning margin

Suduva Marijampole wins by 2+

8%

Banga wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Suduva Marijampole 1+ goals

60%

Suduva Marijampole 2+ goals

23%

Suduva Marijampole 3+ goals

7%

Banga 1+ goals

78%

Banga 2+ goals

44%

Banga 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Suduva Marijampole (draw refunded)

31%

Banga (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suduva Marijampole at home — creates 0.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Banga away — creates 2.27, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suduva Marijampole attack 0.75 + Banga defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.92

Banga attack 2.27 + Suduva Marijampole defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Suduva Marijampole scores more

23%

level

26%

Banga scores more

51%

Banga at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Banga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

Y. Protasov

37'

S. Hamulic

46'

P. Srebalius← K. Pliuškys

61'

K. Mbombo← S. Hamulic

77'

L. Zingertas← Y. Protasov

77'

Ž. Baltrūnas← Xabi Auzmendi

86'

I. Venckus← D. Zubauskas

Suduva

Banga

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Protasov

⚽

▼

Hamulic

Manager: Miguel Moreira

61'▲K. Mbombo←▼S. Hamulic

77'▲L. Zingertas←▼Y. Protasov

77'▲Ž. Baltrūnas←▼Xabi Auzmendi

Suduva Marijampole substitutes

MbomboZingertasBaltrūnasSacramentoStebrysMiškinisRommensBurdzilauskasBurdzilauskasSlavickas

Manager: David Afonso

46'▲P. Srebalius←▼K. Pliuškys

86'▲I. Venckus←▼D. Zubauskas

Banga substitutes

SrebaliusVenckusBrilhanteBirgiolaSmilingisToleikisPetrikasVainikaitisSurvilaPaulauskas