Suduva Marijampole 4–0 Banga: Result & Stats

Suduva Marijampole

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Banga

A. Makas 90+3'

R. Habran 77', 13'

Xabi Auzmendi 22'

5/16/2021

A Lyga · Round 14Hikvision arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Suduva Marijampole51%

×Draw27%

Banga22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Suduva MarijampoleExpected goals in this matchBanga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.85

Suduva Marijampole

1.45

Banga

0.85

Suduva Marijampole creates 71% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 110 away

1.57

creates per match

0.87

0.83

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Suduva Marijampole

1.57

Banga

0.87

allows per match

Suduva Marijampole

0.83

Banga

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Suduva Marijampole+0.00on par

Banga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suduva Marijampole ↓

Banga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Suduva Marijampole or draw

78%

Suduva Marijampole or Banga

73%

Draw or Banga

49%

Winning margin

Suduva Marijampole wins by 2+

26%

Banga wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Suduva Marijampole 1+ goals

77%

Suduva Marijampole 2+ goals

42%

Suduva Marijampole 3+ goals

18%

Banga 1+ goals

57%

Banga 2+ goals

21%

Banga 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Suduva Marijampole (draw refunded)

70%

Banga (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suduva Marijampole at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.83 · 128 matches

Banga away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.32 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suduva Marijampole attack 1.57 + Banga defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.45

Banga attack 0.87 + Suduva Marijampole defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Suduva Marijampole scores more

51%

level

27%

Banga scores more

22%

Suduva Marijampole at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Suduva Marijampole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

22'

41'

42'

46'

Y. Efremov← V. Slavickas

60'

D. Zubauskas

62'

N. Cases

64'

B. Anisas← D. Zubauskas

64'

D. Norvilas← S. Rakauskas

67'

D. Norvilas

68'

E. Mukanya← K. Urbaitis

71'

P. Leimonas← N. Gorobsov

71'

A. Makas← K. Mbombo

77'

R. Habran

78'

N. Hashiguchi← S. Urbys

80'

E. Mukanya

80'

E. Burdzilauskas← G. Matulevičius

86'

M. Vainikaitis← M. Beneta

90+3'

A. Makas

Suduva

Banga

97

27

46

5

19

10

▼

Urbaitis

14

▼

Rakauskas

77

▼

Urbys

75

Stočkūnas

11

Yoshikawa

9

▼

Zubauskas

1

Yiannikog

19

▼

Slavickas

15

Živanović

10

Kerla

29

▼

Beneta

8

Cases

5

▼

Gorobsov

20

⚽2

Habran

17

▼

Matulevič

11

⚽

Auzmendi

22

▼

Mbombo

Manager: Víctor Basadre

46'▲Y. Efremov←▼V. Slavickas

71'▲P. Leimonas←▼N. Gorobsov

71'▲A. Makas←▼K. Mbombo

80'▲E. Burdzilauskas←▼G. Matulevičius

86'▲M. Vainikaitis←▼M. Beneta

Suduva Marijampole substitutes

80Efremov6Leimonas7Makas28Burdzilauskas27Vainikaitis4Gurrutxaga12Kardum32Dubickas14Vikertas

Manager: T. Tamošauskas

64'▲B. Anisas←▼D. Zubauskas

64'▲D. Norvilas←▼S. Rakauskas

68'▲E. Mukanya←▼K. Urbaitis

78'▲N. Hashiguchi←▼S. Urbys

Banga substitutes

17Anisas7Norvilas43Mukanya4Hashiguchi1Smilingis8Šveistrys37Venckus32Vėževičius