Suduva Marijampole 0–0 Banga: Result & Stats

Suduva Marijampole

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Banga

7/23/2020

A Lyga · Round 11Hikvision arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Suduva Marijampole51%

×Draw27%

Banga22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Suduva MarijampoleExpected goals in this matchBanga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.85

Suduva Marijampole

1.45

Banga

0.85

Suduva Marijampole creates 71% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 110 away

1.57

creates per match

0.87

0.83

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Suduva Marijampole

1.57

Banga

0.87

allows per match

Suduva Marijampole

0.83

Banga

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Suduva Marijampole+0.00on par

Banga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suduva Marijampole ↓

Banga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Suduva Marijampole or draw

78%

Suduva Marijampole or Banga

73%

Draw or Banga

49%

Winning margin

Suduva Marijampole wins by 2+

26%

Banga wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Suduva Marijampole 1+ goals

77%

Suduva Marijampole 2+ goals

42%

Suduva Marijampole 3+ goals

18%

Banga 1+ goals

57%

Banga 2+ goals

21%

Banga 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Suduva Marijampole (draw refunded)

70%

Banga (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suduva Marijampole at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.83 · 128 matches

Banga away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.32 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suduva Marijampole attack 1.57 + Banga defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.45

Banga attack 0.87 + Suduva Marijampole defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Suduva Marijampole scores more

51%

level

27%

Banga scores more

22%

Suduva Marijampole at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Suduva Marijampole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

30'

34'

34'

35'

35'

37'

39'

45+1'

52'

57'

62'

69'

P. Lotužys← D. Lukošius

73'

Renan Oliveira← G. Kļuškins

73'

V. Šabala← M. Topcagić

80'

J. Bičkus← D. Norvilas

86'

V. Sabala

Suduva

Banga

97

10

46

5

32

14

7

▼

Norvilas

15

Pavlyk

16

Yoshikawa

13

▼

12

12

18

11

15

30

6

92

32

▼

Kļuškins

17

Matulevič

77

▼

Tadic

9

▼

Topcagić

Manager: S. Širmelis

57'▲D. Pušić←▼J. Tadic

73'▲Renan Oliveira←▼G. Kļuškins

73'▲V. Šabala←▼M. Topcagić

Suduva Marijampole substitutes

25Pušić8Oliveira20Šabala7Jankauskas13Plūkas14Vikertas19Slavickas99Stebrys

Manager: T. Tamošauskas

69'▲P. Lotužys←▼D. Lukošius

80'▲J. Bičkus←▼D. Norvilas

Banga substitutes

23Lotužys21Bičkus8Šveistrys27Bračkus37Venckus55Bertašius2Toleikis

A Lyga: Suduva Marijampole 0–0 Banga

Suduva Marijampole and Banga drew 0-0 in A Lyga on July 23, 2020.

The match was played at Hikvision arena in Marijampolė.

Suduva Marijampole vs Banga — A Lyga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

A Lyga: Suduva Marijampole 0–0 Banga