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Sudtirol vs Nuova Cosenza — Serie B 2018

Sudtirol
Sudtirol
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Nuova Cosenza
Nuova Cosenza
9/17/2022Serie BSerie B · Round 6Stadio Marco Druso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Sudtirol44%
×Draw28%
Nuova Cosenza28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sudtirol
1.34
Nuova Cosenza
1.00

Sudtirol creates 34% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 134 away

creates per match

Sudtirol
1.14
Nuova Cosenza
0.90

allows per match

Sudtirol
1.10
Nuova Cosenza
1.54

finishing

Sudtirol+0.00on par
Nuova Cosenza+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sudtirol ↓

Nuova Cosenza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sudtirol or draw
72%
Sudtirol or Nuova Cosenza
72%
Draw or Nuova Cosenza
56%

Winning margin

Sudtirol wins by 2+
21%
Nuova Cosenza wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sudtirol 1+ goals
74%
Sudtirol 2+ goals
39%
Sudtirol 3+ goals
15%
Nuova Cosenza 1+ goals
63%
Nuova Cosenza 2+ goals
26%
Nuova Cosenza 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sudtirol (draw refunded)
61%
Nuova Cosenza (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sudtirol at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.10 · 79 matches

Nuova Cosenza away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.54 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sudtirol attack 1.14 + Nuova Cosenza defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.34

Nuova Cosenza attack 0.90 + Sudtirol defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sudtirol scores more
44%
level
28%
Nuova Cosenza scores more
28%

Sudtirol at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sudtirol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Sudtirol 1–1 Nuova Cosenza

Sudtirol and Nuova Cosenza drew 1-1 in Serie B on September 17, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Marco Druso in Bozen.