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Sudtirol vs Modena — Serie B 2018

Sudtirol
Sudtirol
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Modena
Modena
9/26/2023Serie BSerie B · Round 7Stadio Marco Druso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Sudtirol35%
×Draw28%
Modena38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sudtirol
1.16
Modena
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

creates per match

Sudtirol
1.21
Modena
1.31

allows per match

Sudtirol
1.12
Modena
1.11

finishing

Sudtirol-0.51scores less
Modena-0.58scores less

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sudtirol ↓

Modena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sudtirol or draw
62%
Sudtirol or Modena
72%
Draw or Modena
65%

Winning margin

Sudtirol wins by 2+
14%
Modena wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Sudtirol 1+ goals
69%
Sudtirol 2+ goals
32%
Sudtirol 3+ goals
11%
Modena 1+ goals
70%
Modena 2+ goals
34%
Modena 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sudtirol (draw refunded)
48%
Modena (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sudtirol at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.12 · 10 matches

Modena away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.11 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sudtirol attack 1.21 + Modena defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.16

Modena attack 1.31 + Sudtirol defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sudtirol scores more
35%
level
28%
Modena scores more
38%

Modena at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Modena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
L. MagninoModenaModena · M
8.2

Match Events

46'
R. Ciervo← N. Rauti
56'
F. Abiuso← M. Cotali
56'
S. Oukhadda← L. Strizzolo
57'
J. Manconi← E. Duca
63'
Jacopo Manconi
63'
E. Pecorino← M. Rover
70'
J. Broh← L. Lonardi
70'
T. Battistella← L. Tremolada
75'
Andrea Giorgini
80'
G. Lunetta← S. Davì
81'
A. Cisco← R. Odogwu
83'
D. Falcinelli← A. Palumbo
87'
Fabio Ponsi

Possession

36%Sudtirol

Shots

7Sudtirol

Pass accuracy

45%Sudtirol

Statistics

SudtirolModena
Overview
36%Possession64%
7Total Shots25
5Corners3
7Fouls14
Shots
7Total Shots25
1On Target2
4Off Target15
2Blocked8
4Inside Box12
3Outside Box13
Passing
36%Possession64%
309Total Passes556
220Accurate Passes488
71%Pass Accuracy88%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
7Fouls14
1Yellow Cards2
1Offsides0

Serie B: Sudtirol 0–0 Modena

Sudtirol and Modena drew 0-0 in Serie B on September 26, 2023.

Modena controlled possession (64%) and registered 25 shots to 7.

The match was played at Stadio Marco Druso in Bozen.