Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sudtirol vs Modena — Serie B 2018

Sudtirol
Sudtirol
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Modena
Modena
M. Armellino 81'
L. Magnino 22'
12/26/2022Serie BSerie B · Round 19Stadio Marco Druso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Sudtirol35%
×Draw28%
Modena38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sudtirol
1.16
Modena
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

creates per match

Sudtirol
1.21
Modena
1.31

allows per match

Sudtirol
1.12
Modena
1.11

finishing

Sudtirol-0.51scores less
Modena-0.58scores less

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sudtirol ↓

Modena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sudtirol or draw
62%
Sudtirol or Modena
72%
Draw or Modena
65%

Winning margin

Sudtirol wins by 2+
14%
Modena wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Sudtirol 1+ goals
69%
Sudtirol 2+ goals
32%
Sudtirol 3+ goals
11%
Modena 1+ goals
70%
Modena 2+ goals
34%
Modena 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sudtirol (draw refunded)
48%
Modena (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sudtirol at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.12 · 10 matches

Modena away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.11 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sudtirol attack 1.21 + Modena defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.16

Modena attack 1.31 + Sudtirol defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sudtirol scores more
35%
level
28%
Modena scores more
38%

Modena at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Modena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
T. D'OrazioSudtirolSudtirol · D
7.9

Match Events

22'
L. Magnino↳ R. Giovannini
25'
Andrea Masiello
46'
R. Odogwu← M. Marconi
46'
C. Capone← S. Mazzocchi
46'
D. Casiraghi← L. Belardinelli
64'
M. Armellino← M. Gargiulo
75'
N. Bonfanti← D. Diaw
77'
M. Pompetti← F. De Col
81'
M. Armellino↳ D. Falcinelli
83'
M. Carretta← M. Rover
85'
E. Duca← R. Giovannini

Possession

48%Sudtirol

Shots

15Sudtirol

Pass accuracy

49%Sudtirol

Statistics

SudtirolModena
Overview
48%Possession52%
15Total Shots11
3Corners4
13Fouls15
Shots
15Total Shots11
4On Target3
7Off Target7
4Blocked1
8Inside Box8
7Outside Box3
Passing
48%Possession52%
424Total Passes481
350Accurate Passes409
83%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
13Fouls15
1Yellow Cards0

Match Recap: Sudtirol vs Modena

Modena beat Sudtirol 2-0 in Serie B on December 26, 2022.

Goals: L. Magnino (22'), M. Armellino (81').

Modena controlled possession (52%) and registered 11 shots to 15.

The match was played at Stadio Marco Druso in Bozen.