Süderelbe vs Vorwärts-Wacker 04

Süderelbe

Preview

18:30

Vorwärts-Wacker 04

3/5/2027

Oberliga - Hamburg · Hamburg - 25

60%

Süderelbe

model favours

60%18%22%

Süderelbe have won 3 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

2–1

likely score

82%

over 2.5 goals

77%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Süderelbe60%

×Draw18%

Vorwärts-Wacker 0422%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SüderelbeExpected goals in this matchVorwärts-Wacker 04

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.81

1.71

Süderelbe

2.81

Vorwärts-Wacker 04

1.71

Süderelbe creates 64% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

2.33

creates per match

1.43

2.00

allows per match

3.29

creates per match

Süderelbe

2.33

Vorwärts-Wacker 04

1.43

allows per match

Süderelbe

2.00

Vorwärts-Wacker 04

3.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Süderelbe+0.00on par

Vorwärts-Wacker 04+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Süderelbe ↓

Vorwärts-Wacker 04 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–15%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

Süderelbe or draw

78%

Süderelbe or Vorwärts-Wacker 04

82%

Draw or Vorwärts-Wacker 04

40%

Winning margin

Süderelbe wins by 2+

40%

Vorwärts-Wacker 04 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Süderelbe 1+ goals

94%

Süderelbe 2+ goals

76%

Süderelbe 3+ goals

52%

Vorwärts-Wacker 04 1+ goals

82%

Vorwärts-Wacker 04 2+ goals

51%

Vorwärts-Wacker 04 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Süderelbe (draw refunded)

73%

Vorwärts-Wacker 04 (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Süderelbe at home — creates 2.33, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Vorwärts-Wacker 04 away — creates 1.43, concedes 3.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Süderelbe attack 2.33 + Vorwärts-Wacker 04 defence 3.29 → ÷2 → 2.81

Vorwärts-Wacker 04 attack 1.43 + Süderelbe defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Süderelbe scores more

60%

level

18%

Vorwärts-Wacker 04 scores more

22%

Süderelbe at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Süderelbe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Their last 4 meetings averaged 5.5 goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings
Süderelbe sit 4, Vorwärts-Wacker 04 18 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Süderelbe

LWWL

04

WLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff