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Süderelbe vs Paloma — Oberliga - Hamburg 2026

Süderelbe
Süderelbe
CANC
17:00
Paloma
Paloma
1/23/2021Oberliga - HamburgOberliga - Hamburg · Hamburg - 14Sportanlage Kiesbarg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Süderelbe43%
×Draw21%
Paloma36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Süderelbe
2.12
Paloma
1.93

Süderelbe creates 10% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 57 away

creates per match

Süderelbe
2.33
Paloma
1.86

allows per match

Süderelbe
2.00
Paloma
1.91

finishing

Süderelbe+0.00on par
Paloma+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Süderelbe ↓

Paloma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Süderelbe or draw
64%
Süderelbe or Paloma
79%
Draw or Paloma
57%

Winning margin

Süderelbe wins by 2+
24%
Paloma wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Süderelbe 1+ goals
88%
Süderelbe 2+ goals
62%
Süderelbe 3+ goals
35%
Paloma 1+ goals
85%
Paloma 2+ goals
57%
Paloma 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Süderelbe (draw refunded)
54%
Paloma (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Süderelbe at home — creates 2.33, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Paloma away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.91 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Süderelbe attack 2.33 + Paloma defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.12

Paloma attack 1.86 + Süderelbe defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Süderelbe scores more
43%
level
21%
Paloma scores more
36%

Süderelbe at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Süderelbe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Süderelbe host Paloma

January 23, 2021: Süderelbe take on Paloma in Oberliga - Hamburg. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Süderelbe host Paloma at Sportanlage Kiesbarg.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.