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Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg — Bundesliga 2018

Sturm Graz
Sturm Graz
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Red Bull Salzburg
Red Bull Salzburg
10/6/2024BundesligaBundesliga · Round 9Merkur Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

Sturm Graz31%
×Draw24%
Red Bull Salzburg45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sturm Graz
1.36
Red Bull Salzburg
1.67

Red Bull Salzburg creates 23% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 128 away

creates per match

Sturm Graz
1.71
Red Bull Salzburg
2.15

allows per match

Sturm Graz
1.19
Red Bull Salzburg
1.01

finishing

Sturm Graz+0.00on par
Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sturm Graz ↓

Red Bull Salzburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sturm Graz or draw
55%
Sturm Graz or Red Bull Salzburg
76%
Draw or Red Bull Salzburg
69%

Winning margin

Sturm Graz wins by 2+
14%
Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Sturm Graz 1+ goals
74%
Sturm Graz 2+ goals
39%
Sturm Graz 3+ goals
16%
Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals
81%
Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals
50%
Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Sturm Graz (draw refunded)
41%
Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sturm Graz at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.19 · 129 matches

Red Bull Salzburg away — creates 2.15, concedes 1.01 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sturm Graz attack 1.71 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.36

Red Bull Salzburg attack 2.15 + Sturm Graz defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sturm Graz scores more
31%
level
24%
Red Bull Salzburg scores more
45%

Red Bull Salzburg at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Red Bull Salzburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg

Sturm Graz beat Red Bull Salzburg 5-0 in Bundesliga on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Merkur Arena in Graz.