Sturm Graz 1–1 Rapid Vienna: Result & Stats

Sturm Graz

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Rapid Vienna

2/18/2024

Bundesliga · Round 19Merkur Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

Sturm Graz43%

×Draw24%

Rapid Vienna32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sturm GrazExpected goals in this matchRapid Vienna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.34

Sturm Graz

1.59

Rapid Vienna

1.34

Sturm Graz creates 19% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 132 away

1.71

creates per match

1.49

1.19

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Sturm Graz

1.71

Rapid Vienna

1.49

allows per match

Sturm Graz

1.19

Rapid Vienna

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sturm Graz+0.00on par

Rapid Vienna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sturm Graz ↓

Rapid Vienna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Sturm Graz or draw

68%

Sturm Graz or Rapid Vienna

76%

Draw or Rapid Vienna

57%

Winning margin

Sturm Graz wins by 2+

22%

Rapid Vienna wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Sturm Graz 1+ goals

80%

Sturm Graz 2+ goals

47%

Sturm Graz 3+ goals

21%

Rapid Vienna 1+ goals

74%

Rapid Vienna 2+ goals

39%

Rapid Vienna 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Sturm Graz (draw refunded)

57%

Rapid Vienna (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sturm Graz at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.19 · 129 matches

Rapid Vienna away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.47 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sturm Graz attack 1.71 + Rapid Vienna defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.59

Rapid Vienna attack 1.49 + Sturm Graz defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sturm Graz scores more

43%

level

24%

Rapid Vienna scores more

32%

Sturm Graz at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sturm Graz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff