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Sturm Graz II vs Stadl-Paura — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Sturm Graz II
Sturm Graz II
FT
1 – 2
Stadl-Paura
Stadl-Paura
7/29/2018Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Round 1Messendorf Trainingszentrum (Graz)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Sturm Graz II77%
×Draw13%
Stadl-Paura10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sturm Graz II
3.19
Stadl-Paura
1.08

Sturm Graz II creates 195% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 46 away

creates per match

Sturm Graz II
2.80
Stadl-Paura
0.96

allows per match

Sturm Graz II
1.20
Stadl-Paura
3.59

finishing

Sturm Graz II+0.00on par
Stadl-Paura+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sturm Graz II ↓

Stadl-Paura →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–19%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Sturm Graz II or draw
90%
Sturm Graz II or Stadl-Paura
87%
Draw or Stadl-Paura
23%

Winning margin

Sturm Graz II wins by 2+
59%
Stadl-Paura wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Sturm Graz II 1+ goals
96%
Sturm Graz II 2+ goals
82%
Sturm Graz II 3+ goals
60%
Stadl-Paura 1+ goals
66%
Stadl-Paura 2+ goals
29%
Stadl-Paura 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sturm Graz II (draw refunded)
89%
Stadl-Paura (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sturm Graz II at home — creates 2.80, concedes 1.20 · 49 matches

Stadl-Paura away — creates 0.96, concedes 3.59 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sturm Graz II attack 2.80 + Stadl-Paura defence 3.59 → ÷2 → 3.19

Stadl-Paura attack 0.96 + Sturm Graz II defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Sturm Graz II scores more
77%
level
13%
Stadl-Paura scores more
10%

Sturm Graz II at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Sturm Graz II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sturm Graz II vs Stadl-Paura

Stadl-Paura beat Sturm Graz II 2-1 in Regionalliga - Mitte on July 29, 2018.

The match was played at Messendorf Trainingszentrum (Graz).