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Struga vs Vardar Skopje — First League 2019

Struga
Struga
Preview
15:00
Vardar Skopje
Vardar Skopje
8/15/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 3
Big match
47%
Struga
model favours
47%27%26%

Vardar Skopje score first in only 26% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Struga47%
×Draw27%
Vardar Skopje26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Struga
1.38
Vardar Skopje
0.96

Struga creates 44% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 78 away

creates per match

Struga
1.63
Vardar Skopje
1.14

allows per match

Struga
0.79
Vardar Skopje
1.13

finishing

Struga+0.00on par
Vardar Skopje+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Struga ↓

Vardar Skopje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Struga or draw
74%
Struga or Vardar Skopje
73%
Draw or Vardar Skopje
53%

Winning margin

Struga wins by 2+
22%
Vardar Skopje wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Struga 1+ goals
75%
Struga 2+ goals
40%
Struga 3+ goals
16%
Vardar Skopje 1+ goals
62%
Vardar Skopje 2+ goals
25%
Vardar Skopje 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Struga (draw refunded)
64%
Vardar Skopje (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Struga at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.79 · 112 matches

Vardar Skopje away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.13 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Struga attack 1.63 + Vardar Skopje defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.38

Vardar Skopje attack 1.14 + Struga defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Struga scores more
47%
level
27%
Vardar Skopje scores more
26%

Struga at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Struga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Top-of-the-table clash — Struga 3 vs Vardar Skopje 1

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Struga
WDLLL
Skopje
WLWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Struga vs Vardar Skopje — Match Preview

Struga face Vardar Skopje on August 15, 2026 in this First League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.