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Stromsgodset vs Sandnes ULF — 1. Division 2026

Stromsgodset
Stromsgodset
Preview
15:00
Sandnes ULF
Sandnes ULF
9/13/20261. Division1. Division · Round 22Marienlyst Stadion
67%
Stromsgodset
model favours
67%17%16%

Stromsgodset have scored in 8 games running

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
72%
over 2.5 goals
64%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Stromsgodset67%
×Draw17%
Sandnes ULF16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stromsgodset
2.58
Sandnes ULF
1.17

Stromsgodset creates 121% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 97 away

creates per match

Stromsgodset
3.14
Sandnes ULF
1.21

allows per match

Stromsgodset
1.14
Sandnes ULF
2.02

finishing

Stromsgodset+0.00on par
Sandnes ULF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 72Under: 2872%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 64No: 3664%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stromsgodset ↓

Sandnes ULF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Stromsgodset or draw
84%
Stromsgodset or Sandnes ULF
83%
Draw or Sandnes ULF
33%

Winning margin

Stromsgodset wins by 2+
46%
Sandnes ULF wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Stromsgodset 1+ goals
92%
Stromsgodset 2+ goals
72%
Stromsgodset 3+ goals
47%
Sandnes ULF 1+ goals
69%
Sandnes ULF 2+ goals
33%
Sandnes ULF 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)
81%
Sandnes ULF (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stromsgodset at home — creates 3.14, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Sandnes ULF away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.02 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stromsgodset attack 3.14 + Sandnes ULF defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 2.58

Sandnes ULF attack 1.21 + Stromsgodset defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Stromsgodset scores more
67%
level
17%
Sandnes ULF scores more
16%

Stromsgodset at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Stromsgodset will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 70% of Stromsgodset’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in 70% of Stromsgodset’s matches
  • 46% of Stromsgodset’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • 45% of Sandnes ULF’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Stromsgodset score first in 60% of matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Stromsgodset
LDDWW
ULF
DWWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Stromsgodset vs Sandnes ULF — Match Preview

Stromsgodset face Sandnes ULF on September 13, 2026 in this 1. Division fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Stromsgodset host Sandnes ULF at Marienlyst Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.