Stromsgodset 0–5 Sandefjord: Result & Stats

Stromsgodset

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

Sandefjord

M. Ofkir 80', 71', 15'

F. Nyenetue 63', 41'

4/23/2022

Eliteserien · Round 4Marienlyst Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 38+ matches

Stromsgodset44%

×Draw22%

Sandefjord34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StromsgodsetExpected goals in this matchSandefjord

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.60

Stromsgodset

1.85

Sandefjord

1.60

Stromsgodset creates 16% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

1.82

creates per match

1.37

1.83

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Stromsgodset

1.82

Sandefjord

1.37

allows per match

Stromsgodset

1.83

Sandefjord

1.87

-0.50scores less than expected

finishing

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

Stromsgodset-0.50scores less

Sandefjord+0.18scores more

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stromsgodset ↓

Sandefjord →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Stromsgodset or draw

66%

Stromsgodset or Sandefjord

78%

Draw or Sandefjord

56%

Winning margin

Stromsgodset wins by 2+

24%

Sandefjord wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Stromsgodset 1+ goals

84%

Stromsgodset 2+ goals

55%

Stromsgodset 3+ goals

28%

Sandefjord 1+ goals

80%

Sandefjord 2+ goals

47%

Sandefjord 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)

57%

Sandefjord (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stromsgodset at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.83 · 38 matches

Sandefjord away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.87 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stromsgodset attack 1.82 + Sandefjord defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.85

Sandefjord attack 1.37 + Stromsgodset defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Stromsgodset scores more

44%

level

22%

Sandefjord scores more

34%

Stromsgodset at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Stromsgodset will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

M. Ofkir

Sandefjord · F

9.9

Match Events

15'

M. Ofkir↳ S. Mørk

33'

Franklin Daddysboy Nyenetue

41'

F. Nyenetue↳ W. Kurtović

46'

I. Jack← K. Krasniqi

46'

T. Gulliksen← K. Tokstad

56'

L. Salvesen← H. Stenevik

63'

F. Nyenetue

65'

D. Vega← F. Nyenetue

71'

M. Ofkir

72'

P. Slørdahl← Q. Jansen

79'

S. Gussiås← A. Tveter

79'

K. Boya← S. Mørk

80'

M. Ofkir↳ K. Boya

83'

O. Enersen← J. Hove

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StromsgodsetSandefjord

Overview

49%Possession51%

20Total Shots15

11Corners4

9Fouls9

Shots

20Total Shots15

8On Target10

7Off Target4

5Blocked1

11Inside Box9

9Outside Box6

Passing

49%Possession51%

402Total Passes429

285Accurate Passes321

71%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

5Saves7

Discipline

9Fouls9

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0

Eliteserien: Stromsgodset 0–5 Sandefjord

Sandefjord beat Stromsgodset 5-0 in Eliteserien on April 23, 2022.

Goals: M. Ofkir (15', 71', 80'), F. Nyenetue (41', 63').

Sandefjord controlled possession (51%) and registered 15 shots to 20.

The match was played at Marienlyst Stadion in Drammen.

Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Stromsgodset 0–5 Sandefjord