Stromsgodset 3–4 Sandefjord: Result & Stats

Stromsgodset

FT

3 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Sandefjord

M. Maigaard 54' (pen)

L. Salvesen 52'

J. Hove 18'

K. Hansen 90+4'

S. Gussiås 63' (pen), 45+1'

Rufo Herraiz 6'

8/9/2020

Eliteserien · Round 13Marienlyst Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 38+ matches

Stromsgodset44%

×Draw22%

Sandefjord34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StromsgodsetExpected goals in this matchSandefjord

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.60

Stromsgodset

1.85

Sandefjord

1.60

Stromsgodset creates 16% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

1.82

creates per match

1.37

1.83

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Stromsgodset

1.82

Sandefjord

1.37

allows per match

Stromsgodset

1.83

Sandefjord

1.87

-0.50scores less than expected

finishing

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

Stromsgodset-0.50scores less

Sandefjord+0.18scores more

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stromsgodset ↓

Sandefjord →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Stromsgodset or draw

66%

Stromsgodset or Sandefjord

78%

Draw or Sandefjord

56%

Winning margin

Stromsgodset wins by 2+

24%

Sandefjord wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Stromsgodset 1+ goals

84%

Stromsgodset 2+ goals

55%

Stromsgodset 3+ goals

28%

Sandefjord 1+ goals

80%

Sandefjord 2+ goals

47%

Sandefjord 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)

57%

Sandefjord (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stromsgodset at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.83 · 38 matches

Sandefjord away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.87 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stromsgodset attack 1.82 + Sandefjord defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.85

Sandefjord attack 1.37 + Stromsgodset defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Stromsgodset scores more

44%

level

22%

Sandefjord scores more

34%

Stromsgodset at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Stromsgodset will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

S. Gussiås

Sandefjord · F

8.4

Match Events

6'

Rufo Herraiz↳ V. Jonsson

16'

William Kurtović

18'

J. Hove↳ I. Jack

28'

Lars-Jørgen Salvesen

45+1'

S. Gussiås↳ A. Kralj

52'

L. Salvesen↳ N. Mickelson

54'

Martin Kreuzriegler

54'

M. MaigaardPenalty

62'

Niklas Gunnarsson

63'

S. GussiåsPenalty

64'

L. Grorud← E. Pálsson

64'

K. Hansen← P. Johansen

77'

G. Gibson← S. Gussiås

79'

H. Stenevik← K. Tokstad

84'

S. Foss← V. Jonsson

89'

M. Mølvadgaard← J. Hove

90'

Martin Kreuzriegler

90'

Martin Kreuzriegler

90+6'

A. Leifsson← S. Hanssen

90+4'

K. Hansen↳ G. Gibson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StromsgodsetSandefjord

Overview

59%Possession41%

14Total Shots12

4Corners5

14Fouls12

Shots

14Total Shots12

7On Target7

5Off Target4

2Blocked1

10Inside Box9

4Outside Box3

Passing

59%Possession41%

477Total Passes324

384Accurate Passes220

81%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls12

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

1Offsides2

Eliteserien: Stromsgodset 3–4 Sandefjord

Sandefjord beat Stromsgodset 4-3 in Eliteserien on August 9, 2020.

Goals: Rufo Herraiz (6'), J. Hove (18'), S. Gussiås (45+1', 63' pen), L. Salvesen (52'), M. Maigaard (54' pen), K. Hansen (90+4').

Stromsgodset controlled possession (59%) and registered 14 shots to 12.

The match was played at Marienlyst Stadion in Drammen.

Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Stromsgodset 3–4 Sandefjord