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Stromsgodset vs Moss — 1. Division 2026

Stromsgodset
Stromsgodset
Preview
16:00
Moss
Moss
11/1/20261. Division1. Division · Round 29Marienlyst Stadion
68%
Stromsgodset
model favours
68%17%15%

Moss score first in only 15% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
73%
over 2.5 goals
64%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Stromsgodset68%
×Draw17%
Moss15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stromsgodset
2.63
Moss
1.17

Stromsgodset creates 125% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 53 away

creates per match

Stromsgodset
3.14
Moss
1.21

allows per match

Stromsgodset
1.14
Moss
2.11

finishing

Stromsgodset+0.00on par
Moss+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 73Under: 2773%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 64No: 3664%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stromsgodset ↓

Moss →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Stromsgodset or draw
85%
Stromsgodset or Moss
83%
Draw or Moss
32%

Winning margin

Stromsgodset wins by 2+
47%
Moss wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Stromsgodset 1+ goals
93%
Stromsgodset 2+ goals
73%
Stromsgodset 3+ goals
48%
Moss 1+ goals
69%
Moss 2+ goals
33%
Moss 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)
82%
Moss (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stromsgodset at home — creates 3.14, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Moss away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.11 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stromsgodset attack 3.14 + Moss defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.63

Moss attack 1.21 + Stromsgodset defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Stromsgodset scores more
68%
level
17%
Moss scores more
15%

Stromsgodset at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Stromsgodset will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 85% of Moss’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (70% and 85% over 2.5)
  • Stromsgodset have scored in 8 games running
  • Both teams score in 77% of Moss’s matches
  • 70% of Stromsgodset’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in 70% of Stromsgodset’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Stromsgodset
LDDWW
Moss
LLLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Stromsgodset face Moss (1. Division)

1. Division returns with Stromsgodset hosting Moss. Match starts November 1, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Stromsgodset host Moss at Marienlyst Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.