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Stromsgodset vs Kongsvinger — 1. Division 2026

Stromsgodset
Stromsgodset
Preview
17:00
Kongsvinger
Kongsvinger
10/14/20261. Division1. Division · Round 26Marienlyst Stadion
Big match
60%
Stromsgodset
model favours
60%19%21%

93% of Kongsvinger’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
70%
over 2.5 goals
66%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Stromsgodset60%
×Draw19%
Kongsvinger21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stromsgodset
2.34
Kongsvinger
1.32

Stromsgodset creates 77% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 102 away

creates per match

Stromsgodset
3.14
Kongsvinger
1.50

allows per match

Stromsgodset
1.14
Kongsvinger
1.54

finishing

Stromsgodset+0.00on par
Kongsvinger+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 70Under: 3070%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 66No: 3466%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stromsgodset ↓

Kongsvinger →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Stromsgodset or draw
79%
Stromsgodset or Kongsvinger
81%
Draw or Kongsvinger
40%

Winning margin

Stromsgodset wins by 2+
38%
Kongsvinger wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Stromsgodset 1+ goals
90%
Stromsgodset 2+ goals
67%
Stromsgodset 3+ goals
41%
Kongsvinger 1+ goals
73%
Kongsvinger 2+ goals
38%
Kongsvinger 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)
74%
Kongsvinger (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stromsgodset at home — creates 3.14, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Kongsvinger away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.54 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stromsgodset attack 3.14 + Kongsvinger defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 2.34

Kongsvinger attack 1.50 + Stromsgodset defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Stromsgodset scores more
60%
level
19%
Kongsvinger scores more
21%

Stromsgodset at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Stromsgodset will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both sides lean high-scoring (70% and 93% over 2.5)
  • Kongsvinger score first in only 21% of matches
  • Stromsgodset have scored in 8 games running
  • Both teams score in 79% of Kongsvinger’s matches
  • 70% of Stromsgodset’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in 70% of Stromsgodset’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Stromsgodset
LDDWW
Kongsvinger
WLDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Stromsgodset face Kongsvinger (1. Division)

1. Division returns with Stromsgodset hosting Kongsvinger. Match starts October 14, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Stromsgodset host Kongsvinger at Marienlyst Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.