Stromsgodset 1–1 Brann: Result & Stats

Stromsgodset

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Brann

B. Acosta 76' (OG)

K. Barmen 88'

4/2/2018

Eliteserien · Round 3Marienlyst Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 38+ matches

Stromsgodset36%

×Draw23%

Brann41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StromsgodsetExpected goals in this matchBrann

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.72

Stromsgodset

1.61

Brann

1.72

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

1.82

creates per match

1.60

1.83

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Stromsgodset

1.82

Brann

1.60

allows per match

Stromsgodset

1.83

Brann

1.41

-0.50scores less than expected

finishing

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

Stromsgodset-0.50scores less

Brann+0.14scores more

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stromsgodset ↓

Brann →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Stromsgodset or draw

59%

Stromsgodset or Brann

77%

Draw or Brann

64%

Winning margin

Stromsgodset wins by 2+

18%

Brann wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Stromsgodset 1+ goals

80%

Stromsgodset 2+ goals

48%

Stromsgodset 3+ goals

22%

Brann 1+ goals

82%

Brann 2+ goals

51%

Brann 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)

47%

Brann (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stromsgodset at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.83 · 38 matches

Brann away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.41 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stromsgodset attack 1.82 + Brann defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.61

Brann attack 1.60 + Stromsgodset defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Stromsgodset scores more

36%

level

23%

Brann scores more

41%

Brann at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Brann will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

F. Haugen

Brann · M

7.5

Match Events

46'

A. Pellegrino← T. Nguen

65'

H. Johansen← S. Skålevik

71'

K. Skaanes← G. Koomson

76'

B. AcostaOwn goal

78'

L. Sætra← M. Abdellaoue

84'

Henrik Kjelsrud Johansen

85'

A. Karadas← R. Kristiansen

88'

K. Barmen↳ A. Karadas

90'

M. Hamoud← H. Stengel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StromsgodsetBrann

Overview

41%Possession59%

1Total Shots13

2Corners9

10Fouls15

Shots

1Total Shots13

0On Target4

1Off Target5

0Blocked4

1Inside Box9

1Outside Box4

Passing

41%Possession59%

411Total Passes558

317Accurate Passes483

77%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

10Fouls15

0Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

1Offsides0