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Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt — Eliteserien 2026

Stromsgodset
Stromsgodset
CANC
14:00
Bodo/Glimt
Bodo/Glimt
4/10/2021EliteserienEliteserien · Round 2Marienlyst Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 38+ matches

Stromsgodset30%
×Draw22%
Bodo/Glimt48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stromsgodset
1.56
Bodo/Glimt
2.00

Bodo/Glimt creates 28% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 42 away

creates per match

Stromsgodset
1.82
Bodo/Glimt
2.18

allows per match

Stromsgodset
1.83
Bodo/Glimt
1.31

finishing

Stromsgodset-0.50scores less
Bodo/Glimt+0.08on par

Total goals

Over: 69Under: 3169%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 68No: 3268%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stromsgodset ↓

Bodo/Glimt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Stromsgodset or draw
52%
Stromsgodset or Bodo/Glimt
78%
Draw or Bodo/Glimt
70%

Winning margin

Stromsgodset wins by 2+
14%
Bodo/Glimt wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Stromsgodset 1+ goals
79%
Stromsgodset 2+ goals
46%
Stromsgodset 3+ goals
21%
Bodo/Glimt 1+ goals
86%
Bodo/Glimt 2+ goals
59%
Bodo/Glimt 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)
39%
Bodo/Glimt (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stromsgodset at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.83 · 38 matches

Bodo/Glimt away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.31 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stromsgodset attack 1.82 + Bodo/Glimt defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.56

Bodo/Glimt attack 2.18 + Stromsgodset defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Stromsgodset scores more
30%
level
22%
Bodo/Glimt scores more
48%

Bodo/Glimt at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Bodo/Glimt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt — Match Preview

Stromsgodset face Bodo/Glimt on April 10, 2021 in this Eliteserien fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Stromsgodset host Bodo/Glimt at Marienlyst Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.