Stromsgodset 1–3 Bodo/Glimt: Result & Stats

Stromsgodset

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Bodo/Glimt

Moses Dramwi Mawa 90'

Amor Layouni 90'

Hakon Evjen 58', 44'

8/5/2019

Eliteserien · Round 16Marienlyst Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 37+ matches

Stromsgodset31%

×Draw22%

Bodo/Glimt48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StromsgodsetExpected goals in this matchBodo/Glimt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.98

Stromsgodset

1.56

Bodo/Glimt

1.98

Bodo/Glimt creates 27% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 40 away

1.82

creates per match

2.15

1.81

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Stromsgodset

1.82

Bodo/Glimt

2.15

allows per match

Stromsgodset

1.81

Bodo/Glimt

1.30

-0.60scores less than expected

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

Stromsgodset-0.60scores less

Bodo/Glimt+0.08on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stromsgodset ↓

Bodo/Glimt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Stromsgodset or draw

52%

Stromsgodset or Bodo/Glimt

78%

Draw or Bodo/Glimt

69%

Winning margin

Stromsgodset wins by 2+

14%

Bodo/Glimt wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Stromsgodset 1+ goals

79%

Stromsgodset 2+ goals

46%

Stromsgodset 3+ goals

21%

Bodo/Glimt 1+ goals

86%

Bodo/Glimt 2+ goals

59%

Bodo/Glimt 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)

39%

Bodo/Glimt (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stromsgodset at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.81 · 37 matches

Bodo/Glimt away — creates 2.15, concedes 1.30 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stromsgodset attack 1.82 + Bodo/Glimt defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.56

Bodo/Glimt attack 2.15 + Stromsgodset defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Stromsgodset scores more

31%

level

22%

Bodo/Glimt scores more

48%

Bodo/Glimt at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Bodo/Glimt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

Hakon Evjen

Bodo/Glimt · F

8.8

Match Events

44'

Hakon Evjen↳ Ricardo Friedrich

58'

Hakon Evjen↳ Fredrik Andre Bjorkan

59'

Martin Ovenstad← Jack Ipalibo

71'

Jens Petter Hauge← Morten Agnes Konradsen

72'

Mustapha Fofana← Mostafa Abdellaoue

74'

Endre Kupen← Philip Zinckernagel

77'

Endre Kupen

78'

Ole Amund Sveen

82'

Amor Layouni

85'

Stian Ringstad← Prosper Mendy

89'

Oliver Sigurjonsson← Hakon Evjen

90'

Moses Dramwi Mawa↳ Lars Christopher Vilsvik

90'

Amor Layouni

90'

Ricardo Friedrich

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StromsgodsetBodo/Glimt

Overview

56%Possession44%

21Total Shots12

9Corners3

11Fouls8

Shots

21Total Shots12

9On Target5

7Off Target4

5Blocked3

15Inside Box9

6Outside Box3

Passing

56%Possession44%

432Total Passes358

324Accurate Passes239

75%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

2Saves8

Discipline

11Fouls8

0Yellow Cards4

5Offsides2