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Stromsgodset vs Asane — 1. Division 2026

Stromsgodset
Stromsgodset
Preview
14:00
Asane
Asane
10/3/20261. Division1. Division · Round 24Marienlyst Stadion
65%
Stromsgodset
model favours
65%18%17%

Stromsgodset have scored in 8 games running

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
72%
over 2.5 goals
64%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Stromsgodset65%
×Draw18%
Asane17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stromsgodset
2.52
Asane
1.21

Stromsgodset creates 108% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 113 away

creates per match

Stromsgodset
3.14
Asane
1.28

allows per match

Stromsgodset
1.14
Asane
1.89

finishing

Stromsgodset+0.00on par
Asane+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 72Under: 2872%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 64No: 3664%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stromsgodset ↓

Asane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Stromsgodset or draw
83%
Stromsgodset or Asane
82%
Draw or Asane
35%

Winning margin

Stromsgodset wins by 2+
44%
Asane wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Stromsgodset 1+ goals
92%
Stromsgodset 2+ goals
71%
Stromsgodset 3+ goals
45%
Asane 1+ goals
70%
Asane 2+ goals
34%
Asane 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)
80%
Asane (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stromsgodset at home — creates 3.14, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Asane away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.89 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stromsgodset attack 3.14 + Asane defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.52

Asane attack 1.28 + Stromsgodset defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Stromsgodset scores more
65%
level
18%
Asane scores more
17%

Stromsgodset at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Stromsgodset will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both sides lean high-scoring (70% and 67% over 2.5)
  • 70% of Stromsgodset’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in 70% of Stromsgodset’s matches
  • 67% of Asane’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • 46% of Stromsgodset’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Asane win just 20% against the top half (vs 46% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Stromsgodset
LDDWW
Asane
LWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Stromsgodset host Asane

October 3, 2026: Stromsgodset take on Asane in 1. Division. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Stromsgodset host Asane at Marienlyst Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.