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Strommen vs Stromsgodset — 1. Division 2026

Strommen
Strommen
Preview
16:00
Stromsgodset
Stromsgodset
10/25/20261. Division1. Division · Round 28
49%
Stromsgodset
model favours
31%21%49%

Strommen score first in only 25% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–2
likely score
75%
over 2.5 goals
73%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Strommen31%
×Draw21%
Stromsgodset49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Strommen
1.73
Stromsgodset
2.20

Stromsgodset creates 27% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 7 away

creates per match

Strommen
1.46
Stromsgodset
2.71

allows per match

Strommen
1.69
Stromsgodset
2.00

finishing

Strommen+0.00on par
Stromsgodset+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 75Under: 2575%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 73No: 2773%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strommen ↓

Stromsgodset →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Strommen or draw
51%
Strommen or Stromsgodset
79%
Draw or Stromsgodset
69%

Winning margin

Strommen wins by 2+
15%
Stromsgodset wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Strommen 1+ goals
82%
Strommen 2+ goals
52%
Strommen 3+ goals
25%
Stromsgodset 1+ goals
89%
Stromsgodset 2+ goals
64%
Stromsgodset 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Strommen (draw refunded)
39%
Stromsgodset (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strommen at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.69 · 54 matches

Stromsgodset away — creates 2.71, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strommen attack 1.46 + Stromsgodset defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.73

Stromsgodset attack 2.71 + Strommen defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Strommen scores more
31%
level
21%
Stromsgodset scores more
49%

Stromsgodset at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Stromsgodset will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Stromsgodset have scored in 8 games running
  • 70% of Stromsgodset’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in 70% of Stromsgodset’s matches
  • Strommen sit 16, Stromsgodset 3 in the table
  • 46% of Stromsgodset’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Stromsgodset score first in 60% of matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Strommen
LWWLD
Stromsgodset
LDDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Strommen vs Stromsgodset — Match Preview

Strommen face Stromsgodset on October 25, 2026 in this 1. Division fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.