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Strommen vs ODD Ballklubb — 1. Division 2018

Strommen
Strommen
Preview
15:00
ODD Ballklubb
ODD Ballklubb
7/26/20261. Division1. Division · Round 15
40%
Strommen
model favours
40%24%37%

Both teams score in 92% of ODD Ballklubb’s matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
over 2.5 goals
62%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Strommen40%
×Draw24%
ODD Ballklubb37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Strommen
1.58
ODD Ballklubb
1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 21 away

creates per match

Strommen
1.46
ODD Ballklubb
1.33

allows per match

Strommen
1.69
ODD Ballklubb
1.71

finishing

Strommen+0.00on par
ODD Ballklubb+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strommen ↓

ODD Ballklubb →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Strommen or draw
63%
Strommen or ODD Ballklubb
76%
Draw or ODD Ballklubb
60%

Winning margin

Strommen wins by 2+
20%
ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Strommen 1+ goals
79%
Strommen 2+ goals
47%
Strommen 3+ goals
21%
ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals
78%
ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals
44%
ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Strommen (draw refunded)
52%
ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strommen at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.69 · 54 matches

ODD Ballklubb away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.71 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strommen attack 1.46 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.58

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.33 + Strommen defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Strommen scores more
40%
level
24%
ODD Ballklubb scores more
37%

Strommen at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Strommen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Strommen score first in only 27% of matches
  • 77% of ODD Ballklubb’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • ODD Ballklubb score first in only 31% of matches
  • Strommen sit 16, ODD Ballklubb 5 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Strommen
LWWLD
Ballklubb
LDDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Strommen vs ODD Ballklubb — Match Preview

Strommen face ODD Ballklubb on July 26, 2026 in this 1. Division fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.