Strogino vs Volna Nizhegorodskaya

Strogino

Preview

15:00

Volna Nizhegorodskaya

7/25/2026

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 16

58%

Volna Nizhegorodskaya

model favours

19%23%58%

Strogino win just 20% against the top half (vs 57% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

0–1

likely score

53%

over 2.5 goals

52%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Strogino19%

×Draw23%

Volna Nizhegorodskaya58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StroginoExpected goals in this matchVolna Nizhegorodskaya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

1.85

Strogino

0.95

Volna Nizhegorodskaya

1.85

Volna Nizhegorodskaya creates 95% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 8 away

1.66

creates per match

2.13

1.57

allows per match

0.25

creates per match

Strogino

1.66

Volna Nizhegorodskaya

2.13

allows per match

Strogino

1.57

Volna Nizhegorodskaya

0.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Strogino+0.00on par

Volna Nizhegorodskaya+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strogino ↓

Volna Nizhegorodskaya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Strogino or draw

42%

Strogino or Volna Nizhegorodskaya

77%

Draw or Volna Nizhegorodskaya

81%

Winning margin

Strogino wins by 2+

6%

Volna Nizhegorodskaya wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Strogino 1+ goals

61%

Strogino 2+ goals

25%

Strogino 3+ goals

7%

Volna Nizhegorodskaya 1+ goals

84%

Volna Nizhegorodskaya 2+ goals

55%

Volna Nizhegorodskaya 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Strogino (draw refunded)

25%

Volna Nizhegorodskaya (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strogino at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.57 · 93 matches

Volna Nizhegorodskaya away — creates 2.13, concedes 0.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strogino attack 1.66 + Volna Nizhegorodskaya defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.95

Volna Nizhegorodskaya attack 2.13 + Strogino defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Strogino scores more

19%

level

23%

Volna Nizhegorodskaya scores more

58%

Volna Nizhegorodskaya at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Volna Nizhegorodskaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Strogino sit 12, Volna Nizhegorodskaya 1 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Strogino

WWLLL

Nizhegorodskaya

DWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff