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Stranraer vs Edinburgh City — League Cup 2018

Stranraer
Stranraer
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Edinburgh City
Edinburgh City
7/22/2023League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 4Stair Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Stranraer60%
×Draw20%
Edinburgh City21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stranraer
2.32
Edinburgh City
1.30

Stranraer creates 78% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 13 away

creates per match

Stranraer
1.64
Edinburgh City
0.54

allows per match

Stranraer
2.07
Edinburgh City
3.00

finishing

Stranraer+0.00on par
Edinburgh City+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stranraer ↓

Edinburgh City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Stranraer or draw
79%
Stranraer or Edinburgh City
80%
Draw or Edinburgh City
40%

Winning margin

Stranraer wins by 2+
38%
Edinburgh City wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Stranraer 1+ goals
90%
Stranraer 2+ goals
67%
Stranraer 3+ goals
40%
Edinburgh City 1+ goals
73%
Edinburgh City 2+ goals
37%
Edinburgh City 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Stranraer (draw refunded)
74%
Edinburgh City (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stranraer at home — creates 1.64, concedes 2.07 · 14 matches

Edinburgh City away — creates 0.54, concedes 3.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stranraer attack 1.64 + Edinburgh City defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.32

Edinburgh City attack 0.54 + Stranraer defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Stranraer scores more
60%
level
20%
Edinburgh City scores more
21%

Stranraer at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Stranraer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Stranraer 2–1 Edinburgh City

Stranraer beat Edinburgh City 2-1 in League Cup on July 22, 2023.

The match was played at Stair Park in Stranraer.