Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Stranraer vs East Kilbride — League Cup 2018

Stranraer
Stranraer
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
East Kilbride
East Kilbride
7/17/2021League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 4Stair Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Stranraer46%
×Draw21%
East Kilbride33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stranraer
2.17
East Kilbride
1.82

Stranraer creates 19% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 7 away

creates per match

Stranraer
1.64
East Kilbride
1.57

allows per match

Stranraer
2.07
East Kilbride
2.71

finishing

Stranraer+0.00on par
East Kilbride+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stranraer ↓

East Kilbride →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Stranraer or draw
67%
Stranraer or East Kilbride
79%
Draw or East Kilbride
54%

Winning margin

Stranraer wins by 2+
27%
East Kilbride wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Stranraer 1+ goals
89%
Stranraer 2+ goals
64%
Stranraer 3+ goals
36%
East Kilbride 1+ goals
84%
East Kilbride 2+ goals
54%
East Kilbride 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Stranraer (draw refunded)
58%
East Kilbride (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stranraer at home — creates 1.64, concedes 2.07 · 14 matches

East Kilbride away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stranraer attack 1.64 + East Kilbride defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.17

East Kilbride attack 1.57 + Stranraer defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Stranraer scores more
46%
level
21%
East Kilbride scores more
33%

Stranraer at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Stranraer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stranraer vs East Kilbride

Stranraer beat East Kilbride 1-0 in League Cup on July 17, 2021.

The match was played at Stair Park in Stranraer.