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Stranraer vs Cowdenbeath — League Two 2018

Stranraer
Stranraer
CANC
15:00
Cowdenbeath
Cowdenbeath
3/13/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 19Stair Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Stranraer45%
×Draw27%
Cowdenbeath28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stranraer
1.37
Cowdenbeath
1.03

Stranraer creates 33% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 60 away

creates per match

Stranraer
1.29
Cowdenbeath
0.88

allows per match

Stranraer
1.19
Cowdenbeath
1.45

finishing

Stranraer+0.00on par
Cowdenbeath+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stranraer ↓

Cowdenbeath →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Stranraer or draw
72%
Stranraer or Cowdenbeath
73%
Draw or Cowdenbeath
55%

Winning margin

Stranraer wins by 2+
21%
Cowdenbeath wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Stranraer 1+ goals
75%
Stranraer 2+ goals
40%
Stranraer 3+ goals
16%
Cowdenbeath 1+ goals
64%
Cowdenbeath 2+ goals
28%
Cowdenbeath 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Stranraer (draw refunded)
61%
Cowdenbeath (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stranraer at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.19 · 102 matches

Cowdenbeath away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.45 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stranraer attack 1.29 + Cowdenbeath defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.37

Cowdenbeath attack 0.88 + Stranraer defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Stranraer scores more
45%
level
27%
Cowdenbeath scores more
28%

Stranraer at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Stranraer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Stranraer host Cowdenbeath

March 13, 2021: Stranraer take on Cowdenbeath in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Stranraer host Cowdenbeath at Stair Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.