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Straßwalchen vs Bergheim — Landesliga - Salzburg 2019

Straßwalchen
Straßwalchen
FT
1 – 3
Bergheim
Bergheim
8/23/2019Landesliga - SalzburgLandesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 4Straßwalchen Nevoga-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Straßwalchen54%
×Draw19%
Bergheim26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Straßwalchen
2.44
Bergheim
1.67

Straßwalchen creates 46% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 37 away

creates per match

Straßwalchen
2.13
Bergheim
1.57

allows per match

Straßwalchen
1.76
Bergheim
2.76

finishing

Straßwalchen+0.00on par
Bergheim+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Straßwalchen ↓

Bergheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Straßwalchen or draw
74%
Straßwalchen or Bergheim
81%
Draw or Bergheim
46%

Winning margin

Straßwalchen wins by 2+
34%
Bergheim wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Straßwalchen 1+ goals
91%
Straßwalchen 2+ goals
70%
Straßwalchen 3+ goals
43%
Bergheim 1+ goals
81%
Bergheim 2+ goals
50%
Bergheim 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Straßwalchen (draw refunded)
67%
Bergheim (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Straßwalchen at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.76 · 82 matches

Bergheim away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.76 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Straßwalchen attack 2.13 + Bergheim defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.44

Bergheim attack 1.57 + Straßwalchen defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Straßwalchen scores more
54%
level
19%
Bergheim scores more
26%

Straßwalchen at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Straßwalchen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Straßwalchen vs Bergheim

Bergheim beat Straßwalchen 3-1 in Landesliga - Salzburg on August 23, 2019.

The match was played at Straßwalchen Nevoga-Arena in Straßwalchen.