Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Straßwalchen vs Altenmarkt — Landesliga - Salzburg 2019

Straßwalchen
Straßwalchen
CANC
15:00
Altenmarkt
Altenmarkt
6/6/2020Landesliga - SalzburgLandesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 26Straßwalchen Nevoga-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Straßwalchen58%
×Draw19%
Altenmarkt23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Straßwalchen
2.55
Altenmarkt
1.57

Straßwalchen creates 62% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 37 away

creates per match

Straßwalchen
2.13
Altenmarkt
1.38

allows per match

Straßwalchen
1.76
Altenmarkt
2.97

finishing

Straßwalchen+0.00on par
Altenmarkt+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Straßwalchen ↓

Altenmarkt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Straßwalchen or draw
77%
Straßwalchen or Altenmarkt
81%
Draw or Altenmarkt
42%

Winning margin

Straßwalchen wins by 2+
38%
Altenmarkt wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Straßwalchen 1+ goals
92%
Straßwalchen 2+ goals
72%
Straßwalchen 3+ goals
46%
Altenmarkt 1+ goals
79%
Altenmarkt 2+ goals
46%
Altenmarkt 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Straßwalchen (draw refunded)
72%
Altenmarkt (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Straßwalchen at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.76 · 82 matches

Altenmarkt away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.97 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Straßwalchen attack 2.13 + Altenmarkt defence 2.97 → ÷2 → 2.55

Altenmarkt attack 1.38 + Straßwalchen defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Straßwalchen scores more
58%
level
19%
Altenmarkt scores more
23%

Straßwalchen at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Straßwalchen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Straßwalchen host Altenmarkt

June 6, 2020: Straßwalchen take on Altenmarkt in Landesliga - Salzburg. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Straßwalchen host Altenmarkt at Straßwalchen Nevoga-Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.