Stomil Olsztyn 2–0 Tychy 71: Result & Stats

Stomil Olsztyn

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Tychy 71

3/2/2019

I Liga · Round 22Stadion OSiR (Olsztyn)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Stomil Olsztyn37%

×Draw27%

Tychy 7137%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stomil OlsztynExpected goals in this matchTychy 71

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

Stomil Olsztyn

1.27

Tychy 71

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 136 away

1.04

creates per match

1.22

1.31

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Stomil Olsztyn

1.04

Tychy 71

1.22

allows per match

Stomil Olsztyn

1.31

Tychy 71

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par

Tychy 71+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stomil Olsztyn ↓

Tychy 71 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Stomil Olsztyn or draw

63%

Stomil Olsztyn or Tychy 71

73%

Draw or Tychy 71

63%

Winning margin

Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+

16%

Tychy 71 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals

72%

Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals

36%

Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals

14%

Tychy 71 1+ goals

72%

Tychy 71 2+ goals

36%

Tychy 71 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)

50%

Tychy 71 (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stomil Olsztyn at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.31 · 68 matches

Tychy 71 away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.50 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stomil Olsztyn attack 1.04 + Tychy 71 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.27

Tychy 71 attack 1.22 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Stomil Olsztyn scores more

37%

level

27%

Tychy 71 scores more

37%

Stomil Olsztyn at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Stomil Olsztyn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff