Stomil Olsztyn 0–2 Chrobry Głogów: Result & Stats

Stomil Olsztyn

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Chrobry Głogów

4/18/2019

I Liga · Round 29Stadion OSiR (Olsztyn)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Stomil Olsztyn40%

×Draw27%

Chrobry Głogów33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stomil OlsztynExpected goals in this matchChrobry Głogów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.18

Stomil Olsztyn

1.31

Chrobry Głogów

1.18

Stomil Olsztyn creates 11% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 138 away

1.04

creates per match

1.04

1.31

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Stomil Olsztyn

1.04

Chrobry Głogów

1.04

allows per match

Stomil Olsztyn

1.31

Chrobry Głogów

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par

Chrobry Głogów+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stomil Olsztyn ↓

Chrobry Głogów →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Stomil Olsztyn or draw

67%

Stomil Olsztyn or Chrobry Głogów

73%

Draw or Chrobry Głogów

60%

Winning margin

Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+

18%

Chrobry Głogów wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals

73%

Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals

38%

Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals

14%

Chrobry Głogów 1+ goals

69%

Chrobry Głogów 2+ goals

33%

Chrobry Głogów 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)

54%

Chrobry Głogów (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stomil Olsztyn at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.31 · 68 matches

Chrobry Głogów away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.57 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stomil Olsztyn attack 1.04 + Chrobry Głogów defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.31

Chrobry Głogów attack 1.04 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Stomil Olsztyn scores more

40%

level

27%

Chrobry Głogów scores more

33%

Stomil Olsztyn at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Stomil Olsztyn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff