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Stoke City vs Swansea — Championship 2018

Stoke City
Stoke City
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Swansea
Swansea
12/12/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 21bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Stoke City45%
×Draw26%
Swansea29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stoke City
1.47
Swansea
1.14

Stoke City creates 29% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 23 away

creates per match

Stoke City
1.30
Swansea
1.12

allows per match

Stoke City
1.15
Swansea
1.64

finishing

Stoke City+0.16scores more
Swansea-0.16scores less

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Swansea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw
71%
Stoke City or Swansea
74%
Draw or Swansea
55%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+
22%
Swansea wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals
77%
Stoke City 2+ goals
43%
Stoke City 3+ goals
18%
Swansea 1+ goals
68%
Swansea 2+ goals
32%
Swansea 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)
60%
Swansea (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.15 · 28 matches

Swansea away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.64 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.30 + Swansea defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.47

Swansea attack 1.12 + Stoke City defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Stoke City scores more
45%
level
26%
Swansea scores more
29%

Stoke City at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Stoke City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stoke City vs Swansea

Stoke City and Swansea drew 1-1 in Championship on December 12, 2023.

The match was played at bet365 Stadium in Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire.