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Stoke City vs Swansea — Championship 2018

Stoke City
Stoke City
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Swansea
Swansea
T. Campbell 90+1'
J. Piroe 6'
8/31/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 7bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 58+ matches

Stoke City40%
×Draw27%
Swansea33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stoke City
1.31
Swansea
1.16

Stoke City creates 13% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 58 away

creates per match

Stoke City
1.17
Swansea
1.08

allows per match

Stoke City
1.24
Swansea
1.46

finishing

Stoke City+0.13scores more
Swansea-0.05on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Swansea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw
67%
Stoke City or Swansea
73%
Draw or Swansea
60%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+
18%
Swansea wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals
73%
Stoke City 2+ goals
38%
Stoke City 3+ goals
14%
Swansea 1+ goals
69%
Swansea 2+ goals
32%
Swansea 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)
55%
Swansea (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.24 · 61 matches

Swansea away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.46 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.17 + Swansea defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.31

Swansea attack 1.08 + Stoke City defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Stoke City scores more
40%
level
27%
Swansea scores more
33%

Stoke City at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Stoke City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
J. ThompsonStoke CityStoke City · M
7.9

Match Events

6'
J. Piroe↳ M. Sorinola
59'
Connor Taylor
68'
T. Fosu← C. Taylor
68'
T. Campbell← D. Gayle
68'
W. Smallbone← J. Thompson
69'
J. Paterson← O. Cooper
69'
O. Ntcham← J. Fulton
78'
Matthew Sorinola
79'
M. Obafemi← M. Sorinola
90'
Kyle Naughton
90+1'
T. Campbell↳ A. Flint

Possession

49%Stoke

Shots

20Stoke

Pass accuracy

48%Stoke

Statistics

StokeSwansea
Overview
49%Possession51%
20Total Shots10
12Corners2
12Fouls8
Shots
20Total Shots10
4On Target5
8Off Target4
8Blocked1
16Inside Box6
4Outside Box4
Passing
49%Possession51%
374Total Passes428
269Accurate Passes337
72%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
12Fouls8
1Yellow Cards2
0Offsides1

Championship: Stoke City 1–1 Swansea

Stoke City and Swansea drew 1-1 in Championship on August 31, 2022.

Goals: J. Piroe (6'), T. Campbell (90+1').

Swansea controlled possession (51%) and registered 10 shots to 20.

The match was played at bet365 Stadium in Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire.