Stoke City 1–0 Swansea: Result & Stats

Stoke City

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Swansea

J. Allen 57'

9/18/2018

Championship · Round 8bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 58+ matches

Stoke City40%

×Draw27%

Swansea33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stoke CityExpected goals in this matchSwansea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.16

Stoke City

1.31

Swansea

1.16

Stoke City creates 13% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 58 away

1.17

creates per match

1.08

1.24

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Stoke City

1.17

Swansea

1.08

allows per match

Stoke City

1.24

Swansea

1.46

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Stoke City+0.13scores more

Swansea-0.05on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Swansea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw

67%

Stoke City or Swansea

73%

Draw or Swansea

60%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+

18%

Swansea wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals

73%

Stoke City 2+ goals

38%

Stoke City 3+ goals

14%

Swansea 1+ goals

69%

Swansea 2+ goals

32%

Swansea 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)

55%

Swansea (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.24 · 61 matches

Swansea away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.46 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.17 + Swansea defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.31

Swansea attack 1.08 + Stoke City defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Stoke City scores more

40%

level

27%

Swansea scores more

33%

Stoke City at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Stoke City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

J. Butland

Stoke City · G

8.2

Match Events

31'

Erik Pieters

38'

Oghenekaro Etebo

57'

J. Allen↳ B. Afobe

64'

O. McBurnie← G. Byers

64'

Y. Dhanda← N. Dyer

72'

J. Asoro← D. James

75'

S. Berahino← M. Diouf

82'

Oliver McBurnie

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StokeSwansea

Overview

49%Possession51%

8Total Shots14

1Corners3

13Fouls13

Shots

8Total Shots14

3On Target5

3Off Target4

2Blocked5

7Inside Box10

1Outside Box4

Passing

49%Possession51%

498Total Passes494

419Accurate Passes412

84%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls13

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

2Offsides1