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Stoke City vs Sheffield Utd — Championship 2018

Stoke City
Stoke City
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Sheffield Utd
Sheffield Utd
L. Delap 90+1'
P. Jagielka 45+4'
B. Wilmot 4'
R. Brewster 28'
10/8/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 14bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 45+ matches

Stoke City35%
×Draw27%
Sheffield Utd38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stoke City
1.19
Sheffield Utd
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 45 away

creates per match

Stoke City
1.19
Sheffield Utd
1.27

allows per match

Stoke City
1.23
Sheffield Utd
1.19

finishing

Stoke City+0.13scores more
Sheffield Utd+0.09on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Sheffield Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw
62%
Stoke City or Sheffield Utd
73%
Draw or Sheffield Utd
65%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+
15%
Sheffield Utd wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals
70%
Stoke City 2+ goals
33%
Stoke City 3+ goals
12%
Sheffield Utd 1+ goals
71%
Sheffield Utd 2+ goals
36%
Sheffield Utd 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)
48%
Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.23 · 57 matches

Sheffield Utd away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.19 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.19 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.19

Sheffield Utd attack 1.27 + Stoke City defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Stoke City scores more
35%
level
27%
Sheffield Utd scores more
38%

Sheffield Utd at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sheffield Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
P. JagielkaStoke CityStoke City · D
8.3

Match Events

4'
B. Wilmot↳ P. Jagielka
28'
R. Brewster↳ J. McAtee
45+4'
P. Jagielka↳ L. Baker
58'
B. Sharp← R. Khadra
62'
Tariqe Fosu-Henry
66'
O. Arblaster← J. McAtee
72'
L. Delap← D. Gayle
75'
D. Jebbison← R. Brewster
75'
S. Sachdev← K. Gordon
75'
B. Osborn← T. Doyle
83'
S. Clucas← W. Smallbone
83'
H. Clarke← D. Sterling
86'
Ben Wilmot
90+3'
Tyrese Campbell
90+7'
Billy Sharp
90+5'
Rhys Norrington-Davies
90+6'
J. Thompson← L. Baker
90+1'
L. Delap↳ T. Campbell

Possession

52%Stoke

Shots

12Stoke

Pass accuracy

50%Stoke

Statistics

StokeSheffield
Overview
52%Possession48%
12Total Shots8
6Corners5
12Fouls6
Shots
12Total Shots8
5On Target3
4Off Target5
3Blocked0
8Inside Box4
4Outside Box4
Passing
52%Possession48%
369Total Passes334
257Accurate Passes237
70%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls6
3Yellow Cards2
1Offsides0

Championship: Stoke City 3–1 Sheffield Utd

Stoke City beat Sheffield Utd 3-1 in Championship on October 8, 2022.

Goals: B. Wilmot (4'), R. Brewster (28'), P. Jagielka (45+4'), L. Delap (90+1').

Stoke City controlled possession (52%) and registered 12 shots to 8.

The match was played at bet365 Stadium in Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire.