Stoke City 1–0 Rotherham: Result & Stats

Stoke City

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Rotherham

J. McClean 27'

10/31/2020

Championship · Round 9bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Stoke City56%

×Draw25%

Rotherham20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stoke CityExpected goals in this matchRotherham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.85

Stoke City

1.63

Rotherham

0.85

Stoke City creates 92% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 12 away

1.19

creates per match

0.47

1.24

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Stoke City

1.19

Rotherham

0.47

allows per match

Stoke City

1.24

Rotherham

2.06

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Stoke City+0.13scores more

Rotherham-0.05on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Rotherham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw

80%

Stoke City or Rotherham

75%

Draw or Rotherham

44%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+

30%

Rotherham wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals

80%

Stoke City 2+ goals

48%

Stoke City 3+ goals

22%

Rotherham 1+ goals

57%

Rotherham 2+ goals

21%

Rotherham 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)

74%

Rotherham (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.24 · 56 matches

Rotherham away — creates 0.47, concedes 2.06 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.19 + Rotherham defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.63

Rotherham attack 0.47 + Stoke City defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Stoke City scores more

56%

level

25%

Rotherham scores more

20%

Stoke City at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Stoke City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

D. Batth

Stoke City · D

8.2

Match Events

27'

J. McClean↳ A. Gunn

41'

Angus MacDonald

59'

M. Smith← J. Lindsay

59'

M. Crooks← S. MacDonald

70'

G. Hirst← F. Ladapo

72'

Michael Smith

78'

J. Brown← T. Campbell

78'

J. Cousins← J. Thompson

89'

T. Oakley-Boothe← N. Powell

90'

Morgan Fox

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StokeRotherham

Overview

45%Possession55%

8Total Shots7

7Corners2

16Fouls14

Shots

8Total Shots7

3On Target0

3Off Target6

2Blocked1

7Inside Box3

1Outside Box4

Passing

45%Possession55%

332Total Passes402

186Accurate Passes253

56%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls14

1Yellow Cards2

4Offsides4