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Stoke City vs Middlesbrough — Championship 2018

Stoke City
Stoke City
Preview
18:45
Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough
10/13/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 10Bet365 Stadium
Big match
39%
Middlesbrough
model favours
34%27%39%

Stoke City sit 17, Middlesbrough 5 in the table

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 58+ matches

Stoke City34%
×Draw27%
Middlesbrough39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stoke City
1.21
Middlesbrough
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 65 away

creates per match

Stoke City
1.18
Middlesbrough
1.39

allows per match

Stoke City
1.23
Middlesbrough
1.24

finishing

Stoke City+0.13scores more
Middlesbrough+0.16scores more

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Middlesbrough →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw
61%
Stoke City or Middlesbrough
73%
Draw or Middlesbrough
66%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+
14%
Middlesbrough wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals
70%
Stoke City 2+ goals
34%
Stoke City 3+ goals
12%
Middlesbrough 1+ goals
73%
Middlesbrough 2+ goals
38%
Middlesbrough 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)
47%
Middlesbrough (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.23 · 58 matches

Middlesbrough away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.24 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.18 + Middlesbrough defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.21

Middlesbrough attack 1.39 + Stoke City defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Stoke City scores more
34%
level
27%
Middlesbrough scores more
39%

Middlesbrough at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Stoke City
Balanced
Middlesbrough
Attack-heavy
50%Possession54%
75%Pass accuracy79%
11.4Shots13.6
1.12xGBiggest gap1.46
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Stoke CityMiddlesbrough

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

2
Stoke City
4
Draws
4
Middlesbrough
Avg goals: 2.3BTTS: 50%
1–20–01–30–22–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
City
WDLLL
Middlesbrough
DLDDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Stoke City host Middlesbrough

October 13, 2026: Stoke City take on Middlesbrough in Championship. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Stoke City host Middlesbrough at Bet365 Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.