Stoke City 0–0 Middlesbrough: Result & Stats

Stoke City

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Middlesbrough

12/11/2021

Championship · Round 22bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 61+ matches

Stoke City34%

×Draw27%

Middlesbrough39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stoke CityExpected goals in this matchMiddlesbrough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.31

Stoke City

1.21

Middlesbrough

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 65 away

1.17

creates per match

1.39

1.24

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Stoke City

1.17

Middlesbrough

1.39

allows per match

Stoke City

1.24

Middlesbrough

1.24

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

Stoke City+0.13scores more

Middlesbrough+0.16scores more

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Middlesbrough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw

61%

Stoke City or Middlesbrough

73%

Draw or Middlesbrough

66%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+

14%

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals

70%

Stoke City 2+ goals

34%

Stoke City 3+ goals

12%

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

73%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

38%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)

47%

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.24 · 61 matches

Middlesbrough away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.24 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.17 + Middlesbrough defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.21

Middlesbrough attack 1.39 + Stoke City defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Stoke City scores more

34%

level

27%

Middlesbrough scores more

39%

Middlesbrough at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

J. Lumley

Middlesbrough · G

7.5

Match Events

10'

35'

71'

72'

74'

O. Hernández← D. Watmore

80'

J. Brown← T. Campbell

84'

T. Ince← M. Vrančić

84'

S. Surridge← S. Fletcher

89'

U. Ikpeazu← A. Šporar

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StokeMiddlesbrough

Overview

41%Possession59%

8Total Shots7

5Corners4

7Fouls5

Shots

8Total Shots7

1On Target1

3Off Target4

4Blocked2

5Inside Box5

3Outside Box2

Passing

41%Possession59%

366Total Passes537

269Accurate Passes441

73%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

7Fouls5

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1