Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Stoke City vs Middlesbrough — Premier League 2026

Stoke City
Stoke City
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough
M. Arnautović 42', 29'
3/4/2017Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 27bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Stoke City50%
×Draw26%
Middlesbrough24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stoke City
1.50
Middlesbrough
0.95

Stoke City creates 58% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 18 away

creates per match

Stoke City
1.33
Middlesbrough
0.56

allows per match

Stoke City
1.33
Middlesbrough
1.67

finishing

Stoke City+0.00on par
Middlesbrough+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Middlesbrough →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw
76%
Stoke City or Middlesbrough
74%
Draw or Middlesbrough
50%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+
25%
Middlesbrough wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals
78%
Stoke City 2+ goals
44%
Stoke City 3+ goals
19%
Middlesbrough 1+ goals
61%
Middlesbrough 2+ goals
25%
Middlesbrough 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)
68%
Middlesbrough (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 66 matches

Middlesbrough away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.33 + Middlesbrough defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Middlesbrough attack 0.56 + Stoke City defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Stoke City scores more
50%
level
26%
Middlesbrough scores more
24%

Stoke City at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Stoke City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
G. WhelanStoke CityStoke City · M
8.2

Match Events

8'
B. Espinosa← Daniel Ayala
21'
Ryan Shawcross
29'
M. Arnautović↳ G. Whelan
42'
M. Arnautović↳ P. Crouch
45'
George Friend
46'
C. Stuani← G. Ramírez
65'
M. Diouf← M. Arnautović
75'
A. Guédioura← G. Leadbitter
78'
Marten de Roon
79'
S. Berahino← P. Crouch
87'
I. Afellay← B. Martins Indi

Possession

54%Stoke

Shots

13Stoke

Pass accuracy

51%Stoke

Statistics

StokeMiddlesbrough
Overview
54%Possession46%
13Total Shots8
6Corners1
16Fouls20
Shots
13Total Shots8
8On Target2
5Off Target3
0Blocked3
11Inside Box4
2Outside Box4
Passing
54%Possession46%
435Total Passes369
340Accurate Passes277
78%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
16Fouls20
1Yellow Cards2
1Offsides4

Match Recap: Stoke City vs Middlesbrough

Stoke City beat Middlesbrough 2-0 in Premier League on March 4, 2017.

Goals: M. Arnautović (29', 42').

Stoke City controlled possession (54%) and registered 13 shots to 8.

The match was played at bet365 Stadium in Stoke.