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Stoke City vs Liverpool — Premier League 2026

Stoke City
Stoke City
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Liverpool
Liverpool
Philippe Coutinho 86'
8/9/2015Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Stoke City31%
×Draw25%
Liverpool44%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stoke City
1.29
Liverpool
1.57

Liverpool creates 22% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 201 away

creates per match

Stoke City
1.31
Liverpool
1.83

allows per match

Stoke City
1.31
Liverpool
1.27

finishing

Stoke City+0.00on par
Liverpool+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Liverpool →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw
56%
Stoke City or Liverpool
75%
Draw or Liverpool
69%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+
13%
Liverpool wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals
72%
Stoke City 2+ goals
37%
Stoke City 3+ goals
14%
Liverpool 1+ goals
79%
Liverpool 2+ goals
46%
Liverpool 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)
42%
Liverpool (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.31 · 72 matches

Liverpool away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.27 · 201 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.31 + Liverpool defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.29

Liverpool attack 1.83 + Stoke City defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Stoke City scores more
31%
level
25%
Liverpool scores more
44%

Liverpool at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Liverpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
Philippe CoutinhoLiverpoolLiverpool · M
7.7

Match Events

4'
Ibrahim Afellay
28'
Martin Škrtel
39'
James Milner
46'
P. Wollscheid← E. Pieters
50'
Dejan Lovren
63'
Joe Gomez
63'
E. Can← A. Lallana
73'
Charlie Adam
78'
P. Odemwingie← I. Afellay
78'
S. Sidwell← C. Adam
78'
Roberto Firmino← J. Ibe
86'
Philippe Coutinho↳ J. Gomez

Possession

47%Stoke

Shots

7Stoke

Pass accuracy

48%Stoke

Statistics

StokeLiverpool
Overview
47%Possession53%
7Total Shots8
3Corners5
0Fouls0
Shots
7Total Shots8
1On Target3
4Off Target1
2Blocked4
4Inside Box4
3Outside Box4
Passing
47%Possession53%
412Total Passes478
301Accurate Passes378
73%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
0Fouls0
2Yellow Cards4
3Offsides2

Premier League: Stoke City 0–1 Liverpool

Liverpool beat Stoke City 1-0 in Premier League on August 9, 2015.

Goals: Philippe Coutinho (86').

Liverpool controlled possession (53%) and registered 8 shots to 7.

The match was played at bet365 Stadium in Stoke.