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Stockport County vs Plymouth — League One 2018

Stockport County
Stockport County
Preview
15:00
Plymouth
Plymouth
3/6/2027League OneLeague One · Round 34Edgeley Park
43%
Plymouth
model favours
33%24%43%

Plymouth are unbeaten in 9 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Stockport County33%
×Draw24%
Plymouth43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stockport County
1.39
Plymouth
1.63

Plymouth creates 17% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 13 away

creates per match

Stockport County
1.56
Plymouth
2.00

allows per match

Stockport County
1.25
Plymouth
1.22

finishing

Stockport County+0.24scores more
Plymouth-0.38scores less

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stockport County ↓

Plymouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Stockport County or draw
57%
Stockport County or Plymouth
76%
Draw or Plymouth
67%

Winning margin

Stockport County wins by 2+
15%
Plymouth wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Stockport County 1+ goals
75%
Stockport County 2+ goals
40%
Stockport County 3+ goals
16%
Plymouth 1+ goals
80%
Plymouth 2+ goals
48%
Plymouth 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Stockport County (draw refunded)
43%
Plymouth (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stockport County at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.25 · 10 matches

Plymouth away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.22 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stockport County attack 1.56 + Plymouth defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.39

Plymouth attack 2.00 + Stockport County defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Stockport County scores more
33%
level
24%
Plymouth scores more
43%

Plymouth at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Plymouth have scored in 15 games running
  • Plymouth have won 5 in a row
  • Stockport County score first in only 20% of matches
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (80% and 72% over 2.5)
  • 80% of Stockport County’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Plymouth score first in only 28% of matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Stockport County
Balanced
Plymouth
Attack-heavy
55%Possession49%
76%Pass accuracy68%
12.8Shots13.4
1.35xGBiggest gap2.12
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Stockport CountyPlymouth

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
County
WLWWW
Plymouth
WWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Stockport County face Plymouth (League One)

League One returns with Stockport County hosting Plymouth. Match starts March 6, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Stockport County host Plymouth at Edgeley Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.