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Stockport County vs Leyton Orient — League One 2018

Stockport County
Stockport County
Preview
15:00
Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient
11/28/2026League OneLeague One · Round 17Edgeley Park
Big match
50%
Stockport County
model favours
50%24%26%

Both sides lean high-scoring (80% and 80% over 2.5)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Stockport County50%
×Draw24%
Leyton Orient26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stockport County
1.69
Leyton Orient
1.15

Stockport County creates 47% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

creates per match

Stockport County
1.56
Leyton Orient
1.05

allows per match

Stockport County
1.25
Leyton Orient
1.81

finishing

Stockport County+0.24scores more
Leyton Orient-0.23scores less

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stockport County ↓

Leyton Orient →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Stockport County or draw
74%
Stockport County or Leyton Orient
76%
Draw or Leyton Orient
50%

Winning margin

Stockport County wins by 2+
27%
Leyton Orient wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Stockport County 1+ goals
82%
Stockport County 2+ goals
50%
Stockport County 3+ goals
24%
Leyton Orient 1+ goals
68%
Leyton Orient 2+ goals
32%
Leyton Orient 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Stockport County (draw refunded)
66%
Leyton Orient (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stockport County at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.25 · 10 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.81 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stockport County attack 1.56 + Leyton Orient defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.69

Leyton Orient attack 1.05 + Stockport County defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Stockport County scores more
50%
level
24%
Leyton Orient scores more
26%

Stockport County at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Stockport County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Stockport County score first in only 20% of matches
  • 80% of Stockport County’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • 80% of Leyton Orient’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Leyton Orient score first in only 30% of matches
  • Leyton Orient have scored in 7 games running
  • Both teams score in 70% of Stockport County’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Stockport County
Balanced
Leyton Orient
Balanced
55%Possession52%
76%Pass accuracy71%
12.8Shots11.3
1.35xGBiggest gap1.12
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Stockport CountyLeyton Orient

Head-to-head

8 previous meetings

2
Stockport County
4
Draws
2
Leyton Orient
Avg goals: 2.8BTTS: 63%
0–02–21–12–21–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
County
WLWWW
Orient
LLWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Stockport County face Leyton Orient (League One)

League One returns with Stockport County hosting Leyton Orient. Match starts November 28, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Stockport County host Leyton Orient at Edgeley Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.