Stockport County 1–4 Leyton Orient: Result & Stats

Stockport County

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Leyton Orient

J. Diamond 50'

S. Clare 81'

D. Agyei 57'

E. Galbraith 17', 12'

9/21/2024

League One · Round 7Edgeley Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Stockport County50%

×Draw24%

Leyton Orient26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stockport CountyExpected goals in this matchLeyton Orient

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.15

Stockport County

1.69

Leyton Orient

1.15

Stockport County creates 47% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

1.56

creates per match

1.05

1.25

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Stockport County

1.56

Leyton Orient

1.05

allows per match

Stockport County

1.25

Leyton Orient

1.81

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

Stockport County+0.24scores more

Leyton Orient-0.23scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stockport County ↓

Leyton Orient →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Stockport County or draw

74%

Stockport County or Leyton Orient

76%

Draw or Leyton Orient

50%

Winning margin

Stockport County wins by 2+

27%

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Stockport County 1+ goals

82%

Stockport County 2+ goals

50%

Stockport County 3+ goals

24%

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

68%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

32%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Stockport County (draw refunded)

66%

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stockport County at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.25 · 10 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.81 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stockport County attack 1.56 + Leyton Orient defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.69

Leyton Orient attack 1.05 + Stockport County defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Stockport County scores more

50%

level

24%

Leyton Orient scores more

26%

Stockport County at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Stockport County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

E. Galbraith

Leyton Orient · M

8.3

Match Events

12'

E. Galbraith↳ T. James

17'

E. Galbraith

21'

Ollie O'Neill

28'

Thomas James

46'

I. Olaofe← O. Norwood

46'

L. Bate← C. Camps

50'

J. Diamond↳ I. Olaofe

57'

B. Cooper← T. James

57'

D. Ball← O. ONeill

57'

D. Agyei↳ D. Ball

69'

Jack Diamond

73'

J. Fevrier← T. Adaramola

73'

L. Fiorini← K. Wootton

81'

S. Clare↳ D. Agyei

84'

J. Graham← S. Clare

84'

L. Warrington← D. Agyei

85'

I. Touray← W. Collar

89'

J. Donley← J. Brown

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StockportLeyton

Overview

63%Possession37%

18Total Shots9

6Corners1

12Fouls13

Shots

18Total Shots9

3On Target5

9Off Target3

6Blocked1

14Inside Box9

4Outside Box0

Passing

63%Possession37%

475Total Passes285

346Accurate Passes167

73%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls13

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides3