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Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon — League One 2018

Stockport County
Stockport County
Preview
15:00
AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon
10/31/2026League OneLeague One · Round 14Edgeley Park
Big match
52%
Stockport County
model favours
52%23%26%

Stockport County score first in only 20% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Stockport County52%
×Draw23%
AFC Wimbledon26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stockport County
1.86
AFC Wimbledon
1.25

Stockport County creates 49% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

creates per match

Stockport County
1.76
AFC Wimbledon
1.10

allows per match

Stockport County
1.41
AFC Wimbledon
1.96

finishing

Stockport County-0.05on par
AFC Wimbledon+0.17scores more

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stockport County ↓

AFC Wimbledon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Stockport County or draw
74%
Stockport County or AFC Wimbledon
77%
Draw or AFC Wimbledon
48%

Winning margin

Stockport County wins by 2+
29%
AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Stockport County 1+ goals
84%
Stockport County 2+ goals
55%
Stockport County 3+ goals
28%
AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals
71%
AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals
36%
AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Stockport County (draw refunded)
67%
AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stockport County at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.41 · 7 matches

AFC Wimbledon away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.96 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stockport County attack 1.76 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.86

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.10 + Stockport County defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Stockport County scores more
52%
level
23%
AFC Wimbledon scores more
26%

Stockport County at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Stockport County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 80% of Stockport County’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Stockport County have won 5 of the last 6 meetings
  • Both teams score in 70% of Stockport County’s matches
  • Stockport County sit 4, AFC Wimbledon 19 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Stockport County
Balanced
AFC Wimbledon
Balanced
54%Possession47%
76%Pass accuracy68%
12.9Shots10.6
1.44xGBiggest gap1.16
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Stockport CountyAFC Wimbledon

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

5
Stockport County
0
Draws
1
AFC Wimbledon
Avg goals: 1.8BTTS: 17%
2–03–01–02–10–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
County
WLWWW
Wimbledon
DWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Stockport County face AFC Wimbledon (League One)

League One returns with Stockport County hosting AFC Wimbledon. Match starts October 31, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Stockport County host AFC Wimbledon at Edgeley Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.