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Stockholm Internazionale vs Hammarby FF — Svenska Cupen 2019

Stockholm Internazionale
Stockholm Internazionale
Preview
16:30
Hammarby FF
Hammarby FF
8/26/2026Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Final
73%
Hammarby FF
model favours
10%17%73%

Stockholm Internazionale have scored in 16 games running

brightest fact of this match

0–2
likely score
56%
over 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Stockholm Internazionale10%
×Draw17%
Hammarby FF73%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stockholm Internazionale
0.69
Hammarby FF
2.25

Hammarby FF creates 226% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 17 away

creates per match

Stockholm Internazionale
0.50
Hammarby FF
2.82

allows per match

Stockholm Internazionale
1.67
Hammarby FF
0.88

finishing

Stockholm Internazionale+0.00on par
Hammarby FF+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stockholm Internazionale ↓

Hammarby FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–112%
0–213%
0–310%
0–46%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Stockholm Internazionale or draw
27%
Stockholm Internazionale or Hammarby FF
83%
Draw or Hammarby FF
90%

Winning margin

Stockholm Internazionale wins by 2+
3%
Hammarby FF wins by 2+
49%

Team goals

Stockholm Internazionale 1+ goals
50%
Stockholm Internazionale 2+ goals
15%
Stockholm Internazionale 3+ goals
3%
Hammarby FF 1+ goals
89%
Hammarby FF 2+ goals
65%
Hammarby FF 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Stockholm Internazionale (draw refunded)
12%
Hammarby FF (draw refunded)
88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stockholm Internazionale at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Hammarby FF away — creates 2.82, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stockholm Internazionale attack 0.50 + Hammarby FF defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.69

Hammarby FF attack 2.82 + Stockholm Internazionale defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Stockholm Internazionale scores more
10%
level
17%
Hammarby FF scores more
73%

Hammarby FF at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Hammarby FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Stockholm Internazionale have won 5 in a row
  • Stockholm Internazionale are unbeaten in 7 straight
  • 33% of Stockholm Internazionale’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • 22% of Stockholm Internazionale’s goals come in the first 15 minutes

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Internazionale
WWWWW
FF
WWWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Stockholm Internazionale face Hammarby FF (Svenska Cupen)

Svenska Cupen returns with Stockholm Internazionale hosting Hammarby FF. Match starts August 26, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.