Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Stjarnan vs Keflavik — Úrvalsdeild 2025

Stjarnan
Stjarnan
Preview
18:00
Keflavik
Keflavik
8/9/2026ÚrvalsdeildÚrvalsdeild · Round 18
Big match
50%
Stjarnan
model favours
50%21%29%

84% of Stjarnan’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
71%
over 2.5 goals
69%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Stjarnan50%
×Draw21%
Keflavik29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stjarnan
2.10
Keflavik
1.57

Stjarnan creates 34% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 11 away

creates per match

Stjarnan
2.21
Keflavik
1.27

allows per match

Stjarnan
1.88
Keflavik
2.00

finishing

Stjarnan+0.00on par
Keflavik+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stjarnan ↓

Keflavik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Stjarnan or draw
71%
Stjarnan or Keflavik
79%
Draw or Keflavik
50%

Winning margin

Stjarnan wins by 2+
29%
Keflavik wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Stjarnan 1+ goals
88%
Stjarnan 2+ goals
62%
Stjarnan 3+ goals
35%
Keflavik 1+ goals
79%
Keflavik 2+ goals
46%
Keflavik 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Stjarnan (draw refunded)
63%
Keflavik (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stjarnan at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.88 · 24 matches

Keflavik away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stjarnan attack 2.21 + Keflavik defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.10

Keflavik attack 1.27 + Stjarnan defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Stjarnan scores more
50%
level
21%
Keflavik scores more
29%

Stjarnan at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Stjarnan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 79% of Stjarnan’s matches
  • Stjarnan score first in only 32% of matches
  • Stjarnan have scored in 7 games running
  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • Their last 5 meetings averaged 3.8 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Stjarnan
DWDWL
Keflavik
LDWDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Stjarnan face Keflavik (Úrvalsdeild)

Úrvalsdeild returns with Stjarnan hosting Keflavik. Match starts August 9, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.