Stjarnan vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar

Stjarnan

Preview

14:00

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

9/6/2026

Úrvalsdeild · Round 22

Big match

49%

Stjarnan

model favours

49%22%30%

84% of Stjarnan’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

2–1

likely score

69%

over 2.5 goals

68%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Stjarnan49%

×Draw22%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StjarnanExpected goals in this matchIBV Vestmannaeyjar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.03

1.55

Stjarnan

2.03

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

1.55

Stjarnan creates 31% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 20 away

2.16

creates per match

1.30

1.80

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Stjarnan

2.16

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

1.30

allows per match

Stjarnan

1.80

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stjarnan+0.00on par

IBV Vestmannaeyjar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stjarnan ↓

IBV Vestmannaeyjar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Stjarnan or draw

70%

Stjarnan or IBV Vestmannaeyjar

78%

Draw or IBV Vestmannaeyjar

51%

Winning margin

Stjarnan wins by 2+

28%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Stjarnan 1+ goals

87%

Stjarnan 2+ goals

60%

Stjarnan 3+ goals

33%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1+ goals

79%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2+ goals

46%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Stjarnan (draw refunded)

62%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stjarnan at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.80 · 25 matches

IBV Vestmannaeyjar away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.90 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stjarnan attack 2.16 + IBV Vestmannaeyjar defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.03

IBV Vestmannaeyjar attack 1.30 + Stjarnan defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Stjarnan scores more

49%

level

22%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar scores more

30%

Stjarnan at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Stjarnan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Both teams score in 79% of Stjarnan’s matches
Stjarnan score first in only 32% of matches
Stjarnan have scored in 7 games running

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Stjarnan

DWDWL

Vestmannaeyjar

LWDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff